TradingView Ideas

Short-term fluctuations with a bearish bias (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
Oil market analysis for today . The overall short-term trend is currently volatile and bearish. Rebounds should be considered as technical corrections and not a reversal of the adjustment trend. All short-term moving averages on the daily chart are in a bearish alignment, with the price under pressure below the moving averages. Multiple attempts to break higher have been quickly followed by pullbacks, indicating clear selling pressure. The 4-hour chart shows a descending stepped trading range, with the MACD continuing to run below the zero line, showing only slight convergence and no reversal golden cross signal. The RSI has not entered deep oversold territory, indicating that the downward momentum has not been completely exhausted, and there is still potential for a retest of support after a slight rebound. The main strategy at present is to sell short on rallies. Traders who want to buy at low prices are advised to enter and exit quickly and avoid heavy positions.
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$800+ silver and $400+ oil are my longer term price targets. (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
What do you mean silver and crude oil aren't gonna go up much higher? While it might not feel like this right now, $800+ silver and $400+ oil are my longer term price targets.
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USOIL daily analysis 06/07/2026 (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
Oil traded in a narrow range as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover and OPEC+ approved another modest production increase of 188,000 barrels per day for next month, signaling confidence in improving market conditions. Prices have fallen sharply since the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement, allowing energy flows through the region to resume. There is also an overall expectation of further downside later this year as supply normalizes. Meanwhile, major Gulf producers are increasing output and exports toward pre-conflict levels. Despite the additional supply, OPEC+ is unlikely to trigger a significant oversupply that would cause a sharp collapse in prices. From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a clear downtrend, with price trading below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Although the Stochastic oscillator remains in oversold territory, suggesting the potential for a short-term rebound, there is little sign of a meaningful trend reversal. The slight contraction in the Bollinger Bands points to easing volatility, but downside risks remain. The key support is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $66.80, while any recovery is likely to face resistance around $75.10. Overall, the technical bias remains bearish unless price breaks above key resistance levels. Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness.
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A rebound still presents an opportunity to sell at higher levels (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
USOIL has been under continuous downward pressure recently. Although the price found some support in the 66-67 area, the supply and demand situation has not improved significantly, and the downtrend still dominates. The current rebound is more of a technical correction. In the short term, there is still some support below, so it is not advisable to blindly short. It is better to wait patiently for the rebound to the key resistance area before making a move in line with the trend. This approach is more efficient and has a better risk-reward ratio. Trading strategy: Pay attention to the resistance area around 69-70. After the rebound encounters resistance, look for opportunities to short and follow the trend.
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USOIL sell (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
Sell USOIL now at Current market price. Manage your risk well
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USOIL 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Reversal Detected ) (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
HANZO MARKET LIQUIDITY REPORT USOIL Timeframe: 30min (Volume Basis) Scale: Higher Timeframe Context / Deep Volume analysis ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Market Observation This analysis is focusing on structural behavior, liquidity zones, Volume analysis and key areas of interest within the current range. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Market Bias Full liquidity Map ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Bearish Reversal Key Volume Zone : 68.40 Area ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Structure Factors: • Higher timeframe Volume reaction level • High-volume / Hidden • Range Defend structure • Volume Stacking • Quarter Volume
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USOIL Forecast | Bearish Continuation Setup Market Analysis (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
TVC:USOIL USOIL initially declined on the lower timeframes, confirming a bearish breakdown after losing a major support zone with strong selling pressure. Following the breakdown, price entered a consolidation phase, allowing the market to stabilize before the next move. The previous support has now turned into a key resistance zone. Although buyers are attempting a recovery with stronger bullish candles, price remains below the resistance area and the descending trendline. Unless a confirmed breakout occurs, the broader structure continues to favor the bears. A rejection from the resistance zone could trigger another wave of selling pressure and extend the current downtrend. Technical Targets Target 1: 67.55 Target 2: 67.17 Target 3: 66.21 Trading Plan Watch the resistance zone closely. A confirmed bearish rejection below resistance and the trendline may provide a high-probability short opportunity. Wait for price confirmation before entering any position, and always follow strict risk management. Support My Analysis Like this idea if you found it valuable. Comment below with your market outlook. Follow my Trading View profile for professional Forex, Gold, Crypto, Indices, and Commodities analysis, high-probability trade setups, and consistent market insights. Trade with discipline. Let price confirm the direction before taking action.
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USOIL continues to maintain a constructive bullish market (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
USOIL – Bullish Technical Setup | 1D Time Frame USOIL continues to maintain a constructive bullish market structure, with the 68.800 support zone serving as a critical area of interest for potential long positions. As long as price remains above this key support, the probability of bullish continuation remains favorable. Key Support Zone 68.800 – Primary buying area Bullish Price Targets Target 1: 75.700 Target 2: 80.400 Target 3: 85.100 Trading Outlook: A confirmed bullish reaction from the 68.800 support zone could initiate the next impulsive move toward the projected upside targets. Patience and confirmation are essential before executing any trade. ⚠️ Risk Management is the foundation of long-term profitability. Never risk more than you can afford to lose, protect your capital with disciplined position sizing, and allow probability—not emotion—to dictate your decisions. Master risk before chasing reward. Consistency is built through discipline, not prediction.
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CL (USOIL) (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
FRI formed a balanced Range D-shape so we are looking to fade teh extremes of VA however VA shifted higher onn Friday making Longs higher probability compared to shorts
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oil weekly chart 05/07/26 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
================================================================ USOIL (WTI CRUDE OIL) — WEEKLY ANALYSIS Date: Saturday 5 July 2026 | For week commencing 7 July 2026 Timeframe: 1H | Exchange: TVC (CFD on WTI Crude Oil) ================================================================ CURRENT PRICE SNAPSHOT ----------------------- TradingView Close (Fri): $68.77 After-Hours Spot Price: $68.78 ← Flat to close — no gap risk Week High: $71.60 Week Low: $67.04 Week Range: $4.56 (-1.93%) Avg Hourly Volume: 2,492 NOTE: Aftermarket spot is essentially flat at $68.78. No significant gap open expected Sunday. Price action will be driven by news flow and Monday's open rather than any after-hours dislocation. CRITICAL LEVEL: Current price ($68.77) is sitting on the 61.8% Golden Ratio Fibonacci retracement (68.78) AND directly below the FVG Supply zone (68.80-69.17). This is a decision point — the next 48 hours will define the week's direction. ================================================================ MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP ================================================================ 1. STRAIT OF HORMUZ REOPENING — PRIMARY BEARISH DRIVER The Strait of Hormuz, closed since February 28 when US-Iran military action began, is progressively reopening. Saudi Arabia's crude exports have rebounded to ~90% of pre-war levels. Global supply is recovering rapidly. This is the single biggest bearish structural force on oil right now. RISK: Any new escalation closing the strait = sharp spike upward. 2. OPEC PRODUCTION SURGE — BEARISH OPEC members have ramped production as the Hormuz situation eases. Combined with recovering Saudi exports, the market faces a growing supply glut. EIA data shows US inventories ~2% below the 5-year average — but that gap is narrowing weekly. Trend: More supply = downward pressure on price. 3. IRAN PEACE TALKS — WEEKEND GAP RISK US-Iran peace talks in Qatar were delayed due to the funeral of former Supreme Leader Khamenei (July 4). Talks are expected to resume. Iran is demanding maritime control over the Strait; Trump has vowed to block Iran's nuclear programme. BEARISH GAP RISK: Successful ceasefire/deal = full supply resumption = oil could gap down $2-3 on Sunday open. BULLISH SPIKE RISK: Talks collapse / new strikes = supply fear = oil spikes toward 71-72 range. 4. NFP MISS AND FED RATE EXPECTATIONS — MODERATE OIL IMPACT June NFP came in at 57,000 (forecast 110,000). Weaker US economy = lower energy demand expectations = mild bearish for oil demand. Fed July hike probability dropped to 15%. A weaker dollar slightly supportive of oil prices (offset by supply concerns). 5. SUPPLY GLUT BUILDING WTI is currently down ~40% from its 2026 high (set when Hormuz was fully closed). EIA forecast for July: $51.99-$76.79 — an extraordinarily wide range reflecting genuine uncertainty. JP Morgan and EIA both see downside risk as supply normalises. ================================================================ KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK (OIL RISK CALENDAR) ================================================================ Mon 7 Jul — Services PMI Wed 8 Jul — ADP Employment Change Wed 8 Jul — EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report Wed 8 Jul — FOMC Minutes (Warsh) Thu 9 Jul — Weekly Jobless Claims Tue 14 Jul — CPI Inflation EIA CRUDE INVENTORY REPORT (Wednesday July 8) is the defining event of the week for oil. A larger-than-expected build = bearish (confirms supply glut narrative). A draw = bullish surprise. Current inventory ~2% below 5-year average — watch the direction. ================================================================ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ================================================================ TREND STRUCTURE --------------- WTI has been in a clear weekly downtrend from the week high at $71.60 down to $67.04 — a $4.56 range move (-6.4% top to bottom). A descending bear trend line connects the week high (71.60) to the recent lower high (69.26) and continues downward. Price is currently attempting to consolidate/recover from the 67.04 low, but remains capped by descending structure and FVG supply. INDICATOR SUMMARY (Phoenix TMA) --------------------------------- MA1 (Fast): 68.62 — Price (68.77) just above. Thin support. MA2 (Medium): 68.57 — Price above. Second support layer. MA4 (Slow): 75.08 — Price is $6.31 BELOW this MA. BEARISH. MA stack interpretation: MA1 and MA2 are bunched tightly together (68.57-68.62) forming a thin support shelf directly under current price. A close below 68.57 would break both MAs and confirm bearish continuation. The MA4 at 75.08 reflects the longer-term downtrend — price is well below the slow moving average, confirming the macro trend is down. No active Phoenix signal (Shapes: 0.00). AUTO FIB RETRACEMENT (from high 71.60 to low 67.04) ----------------------------------------------------- 0% (high): 71.60 — Week high / strong resistance 23.6%: 70.52 — FVG Supply 70.18-70.33 cluster (key level) 38.2%: 69.86 — Near BUY ENTRY zone / 50% line 50.0%: 69.32 — Mid-range resistance 61.8%: 68.78 — GOLDEN RATIO ← CURRENT PRICE IS HERE 78.6%: 68.02 — Deep pullback support 100% (low): 67.04 — Week low / major support 161.8% ext: 64.22 — Bearish extension target (aligns with SELL 64.65) CURRENT PRICE IS SITTING ON THE 61.8% GOLDEN RATIO (68.78). This is the most significant technical level on the chart. Historically the 61.8% Fib either holds as support for a reversal OR breaks decisively toward the 78.6% / 100% zone. Watch Monday's open for the directional signal. FAIR VALUE GAPS (SUPPLY ZONES) -------------------------------- All three FVGs identified are BEARISH (supply/resistance) — formed during the week's drop from $71.60. This confirms the downside bias. FVG 1: 70.18 — 70.33 Formed during the major sell-off from the week high. Aligns with the 23.6% Fib zone (70.52) and the BUY level 70.4. If price rallies to this zone it will face heavy resistance. Only fills if BUY ENTRY 69.6 breaks and holds. FVG 2: 68.80 — 69.17 Formed during the first leg down. Sits just $0.03 above current price. This is the ceiling on any Monday bounce. If price cannot break above 69.17, bears remain in control. Aligns with 50% Fib (69.32) area on a full fill. FVG 3: 68.57 — 68.74 Current price has moved through this zone (68.77 close). Now acting as a floor. A revisit and rejection here (68.57-68.74) confirms the zone is providing support. If lost, MA1/MA2 (68.62/68.57) become the last line of defence. ================================================================ TRADING LEVELS — ANALYSIS & CONFLUENCE ================================================================ BUY SETUP ---------- BUY ENTRY: 69.6 Confluence: Between 38.2% Fib (69.86) and 50% Fib (69.32). Needs to clear the FVG Supply 68.80-69.17 first to reach entry. A clean break and hold above 69.17 sets up the 69.6 entry. Note: Bear trend line passes through this zone — expect resistance. Targets (ascending): 70.4 — Near FVG Supply 70.18-70.33 upper boundary. First TP. 71.0 — Round number / 78.6% Fib area. Strong resistance. 72.0 — Above week high. Only on a major bullish catalyst. 72.45 — Circled key level from chart. Extended bull target. 73.8 — Very extended. Requires structural break of downtrend. 74.0 — Clustered with 73.8 — treat as 73.8-74.0 zone. 75.55 — Near MA4 (75.08). Maximum near-term bull target. 79.0 — Only achievable on a major Hormuz re-closure/escalation. Deep pullback buy: 66.2 — Below week low (67.04). Only triggers on a breakdown. Aligns with the 161.8% Fib extension area (64.22-66 zone). This is a contrarian level — watch for panic selling. SELL SETUP ----------- SELL ENTRY: 67.8 Just below week low (67.04) break-and-retest zone. Aligns with the 78.6% Fib (68.02) area — if 67.8 is hit, the 78.6% fib has already broken down. Peace deal / supply glut confirmation = most likely trigger. Targets (descending): 67.2 — First support. Previous structure. 66.5 — Key round-number zone. Psychological support. 64.65 — Near the 161.8% Fib extension (64.22). Strong target. 63.8 — Circled key level. Deep sell target. 62.0 — Major round number. High conviction bear target. 60.0 — OPEC floor / psychological mega-level. Extreme scenario. ================================================================ SCENARIOS FOR THE WEEK ================================================================ SCENARIO A — BEARISH CONTINUATION (probability: 50%) Trigger: Iran peace talks make progress over weekend OR EIA shows inventory build Wednesday. Price rejected by FVG Supply 68.80-69.17. Price action: Monday open near 68.77, tests 68.80 and fails. Breaks below MA1 (68.62) / MA2 (68.57). SELL ENTRY 67.8 activated. Targets: 67.2 → 66.5 → 64.65. Action: Short the FVG Supply retest at 68.80-69.17. SL above 69.17. Targets SELL 67.8 first, then 67.2 and 66.5. SCENARIO B — RANGE / CONSOLIDATION THEN BREAK (probability: 30%) Trigger: Quiet weekend, no major news. Price holds 68.57-69.17 range. EIA Wednesday breaks the range — build = down, draw = up. Price action: Tight 68.50-69.20 chop Mon-Tue. Vol spike Wednesday. Action: Wait for EIA report Wednesday. Trade the break of range. Buy above 69.20 targeting 69.6 → 70.4. Short below 68.50 targeting 67.8 → 67.2. SCENARIO C — BULLISH REVERSAL (probability: 20%) Trigger: Iran talks collapse / new escalation. Supply fear returns. EIA shows surprise inventory draw. Weak USD from dovish FOMC minutes. Price action: Gap up Sunday open. Breaks through FVG 68.80-69.17. BUY ENTRY 69.6 triggers. Bear trend line challenged. Targets: 70.4 → 71.0 → 72.0. Action: Buy the 69.6 entry. SL below 69.0. TP 70.4 / 71.0. Only hold for 72+ if EIA confirms supply draw AND Iran talks fail. ================================================================ KEY RISK SUMMARY ================================================================ UPSIDE RISKS (could push above 71.0): + Iran/Hormuz escalation — new military strikes + EIA surprise inventory draw (unexpected supply drop) + FOMC minutes more dovish than expected → weak USD → oil up + Saudi Arabia cuts production unexpectedly DOWNSIDE RISKS (could push below 66.0): - Iran ceasefire / full peace deal — removes risk premium - EIA large inventory build — confirms supply glut - OPEC increases quotas further - Weakening global demand (poor PMI, jobs data) - Price breaks 61.8% Fib (68.78) decisively → 78.6% Fib (68.02) → week low (67.04) → SELL entry (67.8) all in play LEVELS TO WATCH ON OPEN (Sunday / Monday): Above 69.17: FVG Supply cleared → bull case developing → BUY 69.6 68.57-69.17: Consolidation zone → wait, range trading only Below 68.57: MA1/MA2 broken → bearish confirmation → SELL 67.8 ================================================================ INDICATOR SUMMARY ================================================================ Phoenix MA1: 68.62 Phoenix MA2: 68.57 Phoenix MA4: 75.08 Signal: NONE (Shapes: 0.00) Fib 61.8%: 68.78 Fib 38.2%: 69.86 Fib 78.6%: 68.02 FVG Nearest: 68.80-69.17 FVG Deep: 70.18-70.33 Aftermarket: $68.78 Trend: BEARISH (below MA4, bear trendline intact) Key Event: EIA Crude Inventories — Wednesday 8 July ================================================================ Analysis prepared: Saturday 5 July 2026 | 18:42 UTC+1 Symbol: TVC:USOIL | Chart: TradingView Desktop (1H) Note: Forex Factory calendar unavailable — verify oil-specific events manually before opening positions Monday. Indicators on chart: Phoenix Algo (TMA), Auto Fib Retracement ================================================================
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