TradingView Ideas

DAX40 – The Market Decides at 25,883 | Multi-Timeframe Confluenc (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
DAX40 Update – Alternative ABCD Completion & Key Decision Zones Multi-Timeframe Perspective The 2-hour chart illustrates the current harmonic structure and our immediate trading decision. The daily chart provides the broader market context and continues to show a constructive trend. The current Daily TD Sequential is only 4 of 9, suggesting that the higher time frame has not yet reached technical exhaustion. Unfortunately, I cannot display the 12-hour chart directly on TradingView. However, the completed 12-hour TD Sequential 9, together with the alternative ABCD harmonic structure, was discussed in detail in my previous Adam & Eve / Island Gap analysis. This creates an important multi-timeframe conflict: Daily: Trend remains constructive. 12H: First signs of exhaustion (TD9 + Alternative ABCD). 2H: Harmonic completion at the PRZ around 25,883, providing the current decision zone. The Bullish Risk Despite our current swing short position, one important bullish factor should not be underestimated. The open Island Gap remains the strongest bullish counterargument. As long as this gap stays open, the possibility of a momentum-driven continuation rally cannot be ignored. Traders who experienced the DAX rally from around 16,000 know how powerful this type of price action can become once momentum accelerates. If 25,883 fails to generate a meaningful reaction and price continues directly towards 26,045, traders should become increasingly cautious. At that point, the market may no longer be developing a normal trend. Instead, it could transition into a high-momentum continuation rally, capable of accelerating rapidly through multiple resistance levels. The next technical resistance areas would then be approximately: 26,390 26,520 followed by a possible first larger reaction around 26,660. The Bearish Scenario As long as the market fails to establish 25,900 as new support, I continue to favour a technical exhaustion scenario. Should weakness develop, the first larger downside objective remains the 23,800 region. The previous Friday Pivot also remains technically relevant, despite never being revisited. More importantly, 24,180 remains the key structural support. If the market revisits this area and breaks below it with acceptance, the recent advance may ultimately prove to have been nothing more than a large liquidity sweep before a broader bearish trend unfolds. Key Levels To Monitor If the market starts moving lower, I will closely monitor these support areas: 25,600 25,500 25,420 25,180 (major structural support) These zones are likely to attract repeated dip buyers, convinced they are buying another discount. That approach may work many times... ...until it suddenly doesn't. Position Management Our first swing short position has already been initiated around 25,883. The position is protected with a standard stop-loss at 26,230, allowing sufficient room for normal market volatility while preserving the broader swing trade idea. If price extends towards 26,045, we may consider adding a second short position to improve the overall average entry. Should the market continue higher, protective hedge positions are already planned around 26,320. These hedges will be managed manually, depending on evolving market conditions, rather than by a fixed ATR stop. If the market never reaches 26,045, we simply continue managing the existing position and wait for confirmation. Additional Market Perspective One scenario deserves just as much respect as the bearish one. If the market continues building higher value above the current range, similar to the technical behaviour that followed the breakout from the 16,000 region, the current structure could evolve into another powerful momentum-driven continuation rally. In that case, resistance levels could be overcome much faster than most market participants expect, opening the path towards the 26,660 region. This is exactly why flexibility is more valuable than conviction. When two technically valid scenarios exist, waiting is also a position—and sometimes the best one. The market does not reward opinions. It rewards discipline, patience and risk management. Final Thoughts Whether this develops into a normal correction or another momentum-driven rally will only be answered by price action. We trade confirmation—not prediction. Reaction before action. The market decides—not us. The pattern is not the signal. The confluence is the signal. Good trades
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USDOLLAR - The Diagonal Is Almost Complete (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
The US Dollar has been tracing a contracting diagonal since the 2022 top. Each leg has shrunk - wave (1) bigger than (3), wave (3) bigger than the projected (5). Textbook contraction. We're now finishing wave (4) into the 0.382–0.5 retracement and the upper diagonal trendline. Wave (5) is the final leg down, targeting the lower trendline around 12,400. Diagonals are terminal patterns. Once wave (5) completes, the reversal is sharp - the move most won't be positioned for. Dollar weakness into year-end, then the snapback. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
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KSE-100 Reaching Major Resistance: ATH Zone Ahead (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Taking lead from our previous analysis, KSE-100 continues to maintain its bullish market structure. After making a high near 191K in January, the index completed a healthy correction and has now resumed its upward trend. The index is now approaching an important resistance area between 188K–191K, where price action must be watched carefully. Trend Hierarchy Secular Trend: Bullish Intermediate Trend: Bullish Short-Term Trend: Bullish, approaching resistance Market Structure The broader bullish structure remains intact. Price has moved out of the previous accumulation box and continues to trend higher with support from key moving averages. However, the market is now close to its previous high zone. This is where the index needs to behave carefully. Key Concern An aggressive vertical move directly into the ATH zone may create exhaustion and possible bearish divergence on higher timeframes. A slower, rhythmic move with pauses and healthy pullbacks would be more constructive. That would allow the index to absorb supply, avoid overheating, and improve the probability of breaking above the previous ATH. Key Levels Current Resistance Zone: 188K–191K Previous ATH: Around 191K Support / Rotation Zone: Previous breakout and accumulation areas Strategy The stance remains bullish, but portfolio management becomes more important near major resistance. Remaining long in strong stocks is reasonable, but aggressive chasing near ATH should be avoided. Capital rotation, partial profit booking in extended names, and shifting toward better setups may produce better results. Stance ➡️ Overall Trend: Bullish ➡️ Index Approaching Major Resistance ➡️ 188K–191K Zone Is Critical ➡️ Aggressive Move May Create Exhaustion ➡️ Healthy Pullbacks Would Be Constructive ➡️ Portfolio Rotation Remains Important Price tells the story. For short updates: X @JustTechnicals_
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DXY: Is the Bullish Breakout Still Intact? (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Taking lead from our previous analysis, DXY broke above the consolidation box after spending significant time inside the range. However, toward the end of the week, selling pressure appeared and red candles were seen near the previous resistance zone. The key question now is whether this is a reversal or only a normal pullback after breakout. Trend Hierarchy Intermediate Trend: Bullish Breakout Attempt Short-Term Trend: Pullback / Consolidation Bias: Bullish while breakout zone holds Market Structure The bullish structure is not invalidated yet. DXY is currently taking support from two important areas: Daily EMA-20 Upper boundary of the previous consolidation box As long as price holds above this breakout zone, the recent weakness should be treated as a pullback rather than a trend reversal. Momentum There is no clear bearish divergence on momentum indicators. This supports the view that recent selling pressure may be corrective. The EMAs are also slowly turning bullish, which adds strength to the breakout case. Outlook DXY may consolidate or move tightly around this zone in the short term. However, if the breakout zone holds, there are good chances that the Dollar Index resumes its bullish move. Stance ➡️ Breakout Above Consolidation Box ➡️ Pullback Toward Breakout Zone ➡️ EMA-20 Acting As Support ➡️ No Clear Bearish Divergence ➡️ EMAs Slowly Turning Bullish ➡️ Bullish Bias Remains Intact While Box Holds Price tells the story. For short updates: X @JustTechnicals_
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BankNifty Weekly Analysis Review — 05 July 2026 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
NSE:BANKNIFTY is currently trading near a very important decision zone. For this week, the main level to watch is 58,000. This level is important because both price action and option chain data are reacting around it. So my plan is not to buy or sell directly at 58,000. My plan is to wait for 58,000 to confirm the direction. 58,000 is not an entry level. It is a confirmation level. Higher Time Frame View On the monthly chart, BankNifty rejected from the Monthly Bullish OB FVG near 52,200 and delivered strongly to the upside. The higher time frame draw is still around the Monthly Volume Imbalance + Bearish OB FVG near 59,500. Price has already tapped the Monthly Bearish OB FVG around 57,900, but it has not fully tapped the higher Volume Imbalance zone near 59,500. So if price strongly reclaims 58,000, upside delivery can still continue toward the higher zone. On the weekly and daily time frames, price rejected from supply but is still holding the important Mitigation OB + Gap Imbalance around 57,500. This makes 57,450–57,800 a very important reaction zone. If price fails below 58,000 and breaks this reaction zone with displacement, downside delivery can extend toward the Weekly/Daily Bullish OB FVG around 54,900. The 54,900 zone is a demand/support POI, so it should be treated as a Bullish OB FVG. Option Chain View Option chain data is also showing that 58,000 is the main battleground. Max Pain is around 58,100, which can act as an expiry gravity/reference level, but it should not be treated as a fixed target. The major Call and Put writer zone is around 60,000. This level can act as strong higher resistance and may become an expiry magnet only if bullish strength comes into the market. The second-highest Call and Put writer activity is around 58,000, which confirms that this is the current deciding level. Put writers are visible around 57,000, which can act as lower support if 58,000 fails. The main point is: Spot below 58,000 shows weakness, but bearishness is not confirmed only because price is below 58,000. Bearishness confirms only if price retests 58,000, rejects from that zone, and then gives bearish displacement below 57,750–57,500. Bullish view becomes valid only after a clean reclaim above 58,000 with MSS + displacement. Bullish Scenario For bullish continuation, I want to see price either sweep the 57,450–57,475 daily swing-low liquidity and reclaim strongly, or react sharply from the 57,750–57,800 4H/1H Bullish OB FVG. After that, I want to see bullish displacement, LTF MSS / CHOCH with body close, and creation of a fresh 15M or 1H Bullish OB FVG / imbalance. Entry should only be planned on the retest of that fresh POI. For stronger continuation, the daily candle should preferably close back above 58,000. Bullish targets will be 58,400, 58,700, 58,800, and then 59,500 if momentum continues. The 58,400 and 58,700 levels are 4H swing-high liquidity zones. The 58,800 level is the 4H Volume Imbalance + Bearish OB FVG. The 59,500 level is the Monthly Volume Imbalance + Bearish OB FVG. Bearish Scenario For bearish continuation, I want to see price fail to reclaim 58,000. The ideal bearish setup will be a rejection from the 58,000 zone / 1H Bearish OB FVG, followed by bearish displacement below the 57,750–57,500 demand area. This will show that buyers are losing control from the reaction zone. Additional confirmation will come if put writers at 58,000 start losing control, fresh call writing increases, and the daily candle closes below 58,000 or below the reaction zone. Bearish targets will be 57,475, 57,000, 55,700, and 54,900. The 57,475 level is daily swing-low liquidity. The 57,000 level is put writer support. The 55,700 level can act as a short-term bullish pullback zone. The 54,900 level is the Weekly/Daily Bullish OB FVG. Best Trade Plan The best trade is not a direct buy or sell at 58,000. The best model is to wait for price to either sweep 57,450–57,475 and reclaim, or reject from 58,000 and fail. Only after that, I will wait for displacement, MSS / CHOCH, fresh POI creation, and then plan entry on retest. This helps avoid getting trapped inside the 58,000 OI battleground. Final Bias Current bias is neutral to slightly bearish below 58,000. Bullish only after BankNifty reclaims 58,000 with displacement and preferably gives a daily close above it. Bearish continuation only after a failed retest of 58,000 and breakdown below 57,750–57,500. Final takeaway: Do not predict from 58,000. Let 58,000 confirm the direction.
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NIFTY50.....2026-07-05.....Test of the blue trendline? (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Hello Traders, at the start of trading on Monday the NIFTY50 set back to the level of 23829. This was the upper range of a „Fair-value-gap“ and the area of a Low liquidity zone. From this level the N50 has risen to a high at 24378 on Friday morning. On this way it overcome the decling blue trendline and made a new high above the 24261 from Thusday 25th! The bulls must look for more buying-power in the coming two session, to keep the uptrend alive. One first target could be around 24851 area. Probably a test of the blue trendline is first to expect, but not for sure. If so to come, at 24109 the market should change it's direction again to higher high's. The bears get their chance if N50 will decline below the blue trendline at an horly close with a bearish candle! A possible target area would at the zone of „low liquidity“ at or around 23660 to 23489! The indicators are lagging and it will be important how N50 will open on Monday morning! I think you are prepaired for the coming sessions and an update will publish arount Wednesday! Have a great Sunday..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk
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JULY 2026 TDX Levels (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
July 2026 TDX Levels Please find attached the TDX analysis for July. The Nifty appears to be approaching potentially turbulent times. Firstly, the 200-day moving average is located at 24,420. Secondly, the upper boundary of the regression channel is nearby. Thirdly, the wave structure remains corrective. However, the short-term trend currently remains bullish. Given these conditions, it is advisable to exercise caution by booking profits and shifting your focus to stocks that have NOT participated in the recent rally over the past six months, especially those displaying consolidation patterns and now entering a bullish phase. If the market encounters resistance and begins to decline, the next support level is at 23,620. Please consider the 200-day moving average as a key pivot point. Upside target: 25,120. Downside support: 23,620. In the meantime, please utilize these levels to guide your short-term trading decisions. Thank you for your attention.
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Nifty 50 Levels for 6 Jul 2026 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Market Overview & Trend The Nifty 50 is currently trading at 24,271.60. The overall market structure remains predominantly bullish across multiple higher timeframes, though there is evidence of short-term consolidation or profit-booking at the very top. Key Price Levels The charts map out critical support and resistance levels derived from different timeframes. Resistance Levels (Red Zones) 24,378.15 (1H Level): This is the immediate overhead resistance and the recent swing high. The index faced rejection at this level, initiating the current short-term retracement. 24,261.60 (4H Level): This is a critical pivot point. The price is currently resting just above this line (at 24,271.60). Historically on this chart, this level acted as a strong resistance in late June before breaking out. It is now being tested as support. Support Levels (Blue Zones) 24,089.80 (Daily) to 24,067.50 (15M): This creates a confluence zone of support. If the current price level fails to hold, this is the most logical area for the next bounce, as it served as a previous accumulation zone before the latest leg up. 23,829.20 (4H Level): A structural swing low from early July. 23,784.95 (Daily Level): This is the foundational support on this view, marking the origin of the current major bullish structure. Price Action & Structure The Uptrend: The index has established a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows since bouncing from the 23,784 level. The rallies have been sharp and impulsive (indicated by consecutive hollow/blue candles). Current Pullback: After peaking near 24,378, the price action shifted into a corrective phase. The downward move has been relatively controlled, characterized by overlapping candles rather than a sheer drop, which suggests a healthy retracement rather than a panic sell-off. The Test of Support: The price is currently compressing right around the 24,261.60 mark. The candles in this area are showing wicks to the downside, indicating that buyers are stepping in to defend this previous resistance-turned-support. Potential Scenarios Bullish Continuation: If buyers successfully defend the 24,261.60 (4H) level and the price stabilizes here, the next likely objective is a retest of the recent top at 24,378.15. A breakout above that clears the path for price discovery. Bearish Correction: If the 5M bearish momentum accelerates and the price breaks and sustains below 24,261.60, it will invalidate the immediate support. The index would then likely drift lower to test the high-volume consolidation zone between 24,089.80 and 24,067.50.
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NIFTY (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Element Description Instrument Nifty 50 Index (India) Timeframe Daily Indicators 50 SMA (blue), 200 SMA (green) Key Zones - Weekly Demand DMP (bottom) - Daily Demand DMP (mid‑range) - Gap Fill area (around 23,375) - Supply & DMP (around 23,750–23,850) Current Price Action Price is below both SMAs, testing the gap‑fill zone and showing rejection near the Supply & DMP region. Bias Short‑term bearish until price reclaims 23,750 + with volume; otherwise, potential retest of Daily Demand DMP or Weekly Demand DMP. rading Plan Setup Entry Stop Loss Target R:R Probability Trade 1 (Preferred) 23,950 23,820 24,600 → 25,000 1:5 to 1:8 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Trade 2 (Gap Fill) 23,580 23,400 24,600 1:5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Trade 3 (Deep Demand) 23,120 22,900 24,270 → 24,900 1:4 to 1:6 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Gap Fill Outlook Gap Fill Range: 23,520 – 23,650 If the 23,900–24,000 demand zone fails, price is likely to seek liquidity by filling the gap. A bullish reversal from the gap-fill area would provide another high-quality long opportunity. Institutional View Bullish Above 24,270 Accumulation Zones 23,900 – 24,000 (Highest Priority) 23,520 – 23,650 (Gap Fill) 23,050 – 23,220 (Major Institutional Demand)
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NAS100 LONG SETUP (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Price will buy to 30.326 Before we can look bearish
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Banknifty Intraday Levels :06-Jul-26 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
In Last Trading Session BankNifty closed near trend line support and previous resistance act as support. Sustain above trendline and support zone price will go up downside breakout drag towards next support zone. Bullish>58000 Bearish<57800 This analysis is provided for **educational purposes only**. It is **not financial advice**.
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Nifty Intraday Levels :06-Jul-26 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
In Last Trading Session Nifty closed near trend line support and previous resistance act as support. Sustain above trendline and support zone price will go up downside breakout drag towards nextsupport zone. Bullish>24281 Bearish<24220 This analysis is provided for **educational purposes only**. It is **not financial advice**.
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Nifty Analysis EOD – July 3, 2026 – Friday (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Nifty Analysis EOD – July 3, 2026 – Friday Gap and Grind: Bulls Fade From the Open as Nifty Slips Below IBL to 24,271 Nifty Summary Nifty opened with a 210-point gap above the 24,335 resistance zone, but the strength didn’t last long — an 83-point fall from the open (Open = High candle) showed sellers were active from the first tick itself. Most of the session then settled into a tight 50-point range, with both sides getting trapped in fakeouts along the way. Around 1:30 PM, the index broke below IBL and extended another 42 points, eventually closing at 24,271.6, below the IBL. The day still ended in positive territory overall, but it felt like bears were in control for most of the session, with sellers doing damage control just to protect the gap-up open. BankNifty seemed to be the one disturbing sentiment today — it tested its previous day low even while Nifty was holding above PDH. For the next session, a gap-fill looks possible. An opening above 24,335 might keep the bullish trend going without needing to fill the gap first. The candle itself looked like a strong bearish one despite the green close, and Monday’s opening tick should give more clarity on which way this settles. 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels https://www.tradingview.com/x/jhVbd16E/ Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zu3UAPr0/ Daily Candle Breakdown Open: 24,375.65 High: 24,378.15 Low: 24,252.35 Close: 24,270.85 Change: +95.15 (+0.39%) ️ Structure Breakdown Type: Strong Bearish — sellers took over almost right after the open Range: ≈ 125.8 points — low volatility Body: ≈ 104.8 points — reflects steady seller pressure through the session Upper Wick: ≈ 2.5 points — barely any, bulls didn’t get a chance near the top Lower Wick: ≈ 18.5 points — a small attempt at demand, but not enough to change the tone 5 Min Intraday Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/NTP2jw7b/ ⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 235.58 IB Range: 83 → Medium Market Structure: ImBalanced Trade Highlights: 11:59 Long Trade: SL Hit 13:04 Short Trade: Target Hit (R:R 1:2.23) Trade Summary: The long trade got stopped out, which happens when the open behaves this way. The short trade around 1 PM worked out well, catching the IBL breakdown for a solid R:R of 1:2.23. Net net, the system did its job today even with one loss on the board. Still a learner in days like this, letting the setups play out instead of forcing anything. Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Zones: 24,189 | 24,235 ~ 24,285 | 24,335 Support Zones: 24,125 | 24,050 | 23,970 Final Thoughts “A green close can still feel like a red day if the sellers never really left the room.” Today looked like a classic gap-and-fade — the open promised one thing and the session delivered another, with bears quietly doing the damage control work under a positive headline number. For Monday, a gap-fill toward 24,189 or lower looks possible early on. If 24,335 gets reclaimed and held, the bullish trend might continue without needing to fill that gap at all — but until then, it’s better to treat this as a range with two-sided risk. Staying a conservative trader here feels right — no need to guess Monday’s open, just wait for the first tick and let the structure show itself before picking a side. ✏️ Disclaimer This is my personal digital diary and represents my own analysis and point of view. It is not financial advice; please consult a professional advisor before making any trading decisions.
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NAS100 Daily Pennant: Major Flush Looming (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
## Market Structure & Pattern * **Pattern:** The daily chart reveals a mature **Bearish Pennant** formation. This pattern reflects tight consolidation immediately following an aggressive markdown phase, typically preceding a sharp continuation lower. * **Current Trend:** The index is trading around **29,706.8**, resting precisely on the critical lower support boundary of the pennant. * **Volume & Bias:** The broader structural framework remains firmly **Bearish**, further reinforced by an active macro **Inverse Cup & Handle** pattern that exerts persistent downward pressure. --- ## Trade Setup & Key Levels An asymmetric risk-to-reward short setup has been structured around a breakdown from this consolidation zone: * **Current Price:** 29,706.8 * **Short Entry Zone:** **29,874.8** (Optimal pullbacks or immediate breakdown validation) * **Stop Loss (SL):** Placed tightly above local structural resistance to safeguard capital against a tech-driven short squeeze. * **Risk/Reward Ratio:** **4.0** ### Take Profit Target * **Main Target:** **22,074.3** (Calculated based on the full technical measurement of the pennant pole, aligning with long-term liquidity targets below) --- ## Trading Strategy & Outlook > **Execution Note:** This daily setup is sitting right at the trigger line. Momentum is expected to accelerate quickly once the lower trendline shelf is breached and local liquidity is swept. To filter out potential intraday fakeouts, monitor closely for a decisive daily candle close below support before fully committing to the downside thesis.
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NASDAQ — Bull Flag at the Apex: Breakout or Engineered Liq.Grab? (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Structure ============= Price is consolidating in a clean triangle/bull flag after the March→June impulse leg from 22,777 to 30,752. Structure remains bullish above the 61.8% discount zone (25,819) and EQ (26,760) — that "Healthy Discount Area" is where fresh institutional buy positions would look for entries if we do get a deeper pullback before continuation. Bull Case ============== AI capex momentum has been the primary engine of this rally, and a softer-than-expected jobs print has reopened the door for the Fed to stay patient rather than hike. A cooler CPI print or any de-escalation on the energy front (Hormuz/Middle East) removes the main headwind and clears the path to break the triangle upside, targeting a move well above 31,000 toward the next major supply zone. Bear / BOS Case ===================== Sticky inflation (last CPI print near 3-year highs, largely energy-driven) has already flipped the Fed's dot plot from cuts to hikes for year-end. Narrow AI-led market leadership, stretched positioning and rising bond yields are classic conditions for a liquidity sweep of the internal low (28,182), or even a full retrace into the discount zone before any real markup — shaking out weak hands and refuelling the next leg with fresh capital. ⚖️ Macro Tension ================ Rate path is genuinely two-sided right now. If the hawkish Fed narrative hardens, real yields on Treasuries/TIPS become a legitimate competing asset class, pulling flow out of long-duration tech. If inflation data softens, that rotation risk fades fast. My Read -POV =============== Pattern favours eventual continuation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a stop-hunt into the discount zone first — engineering the next leg up rather than a straight breakout from here. Levels to watch: 28,182 — internal low / BOS trigger 25,819 — deep discount area /Equilibrium - 61.8% 30,752 — swing high / breakout confirmation Not financial advice — personal technical/fundamental view for discussion. Kwagga.
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Analysis of the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the Weekly Timeframe: R (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Based on employment data, the market's repricing of interest rates, and the lack of expectations for further rate hikes, the dollar is expected to experience weakness this week leading up to the release of this month's inflation data, which could potentially turn the tide in favor of the dollar. ​Through my analysis, I observe that the dollar will likely decline to the 99.800 level, which serves as a strong support zone. If this level is broken, the dollar will witness further downside.
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DAX Analysis: Testing Liquidity Zones and Seeking Bullish Contin (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Technical Observations: ​Liquidity Zones: The chart highlights the price interaction with recent support levels, where we can observe the index's ability to hold above the identified demand areas. ​Market Structure: The price is currently testing resistance levels near the 25,800 mark. A successful daily close above this level could pave the way for sustained upward momentum. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and technical analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. Please always conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
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Dow Jones (US30) Analysis: Continuing the Uptrend (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Hello everyone! Today, I am sharing my technical outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) on the Daily (1D) timeframe. ​What do we observe on the chart? ​Clear Uptrend: The index is maintaining a strong bullish path, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows in a gradual and healthy manner. ​Respect for Demand Zones: I have identified several demand zones (highlighted in green). As we can see, the price is respecting these areas exceptionally well, using them as strong pivot points to launch higher after every profit-taking phase.
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Can Bulls Take The Highs!!? (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
So last week was a hell of a rollercoaster. With p.a just expanding out of the week’s open while we had bearish intentions. By Wednesday I realised that the profile had changed to bullish as we failed to mitigate any poi’s of importance plus overextended prices were not correcting. This showed buying strength as no selling pressure could be seen inside of premium zones. Now that we have prices pushing previous weeks highs without manipulating I believe buyer are still presently in control. Opportunity that support my long theory will be acted upon. Please leave comments or feedback as I would like these theories to be questioned by others.
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DXY Higher ? (Sat, 04 Jul 2026)
Last week was berarish but price reacted to a weekly bisi indicating a potential move up. I would wait for a bullish candle to close above100.913 on H4 to confirm bullish intent.
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Banknifty July 1st Week Analysis (Sat, 04 Jul 2026)
Bank Nifty is all set for a big week. This marks the third consecutive weekly close in the same range. If it crosses and sustains above the trendline (as shown in the chart below), there is a strong possibility of fresh upside momentum, given the three-week consolidation. However, if it breaches the support zone of 57,750–57,500, we can expect a retracement towards 56,664. All key levels are marked in the chart posted below.
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NIFTY JULY 1ST WEEK VIEW. ( Q1 RESULT SEASON BEGINS. ) (Sat, 04 Jul 2026)
Nifty's closing at 24,270 indicates some confidence for the bulls. However, we still need strong momentum to sustain the upside and firmly hold above the 24,000 level.In the upcoming week, volatility is expected as the Q1 results season begins.If Nifty crosses and sustains above 24,350–24,380, the momentum could continue towards the resistance zone of 24,813–24,909.On the downside, if Nifty breaches the support range of 24,200–24,065, it may retrace towards 23,800–23,650. All key levels are marked in the attached chart.
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CCI system weekly and daily: major indexes, bitcoin, oil, gold (Sat, 04 Jul 2026)
DJI taking a leadership role. Tech looks to have entered a consolidation phase. Gold, Oil bounce plays on the table. bitcoin is getting interesting...
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TradingView Ideas

MCB key levels (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
These are MCB key levels 400.44 410.51 420.70 431.02 441.47 452.03 462.73 473.54 This is not a buy/sell trade call, it is an analysis.
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AVADHSUGAR | Buy above @532 | Strict SL below 430 | (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
AVADHSUGAR | Buy above @532 | Strict SL below 430 | 1st Target 830 ********************************************************************* The stock market involves risk, risk, and only risk. To survive in the market, accepting stop-loss with discipline and without hesitation. There is no other way to protect you capital. Any stock I share is either already part of my existing holding or I take a fresh entry at the same level I mention. I always place the stop-loss in my system at the time of buying, and I give the highest importance to stop-loss more than the target. Once the target is achieved, I usually book profit once and then wait for either a retest or a fresh breakout. Disclaimer (Please Read Carefully): This is not investment advice. The stocks shared here are purely for educational and informational purposes. Please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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MEBL key levels (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
These are MEBL key levels 520.50 531.97 543.57 555.29 567.13 579.10 591.20 603.42 Note: This is not a buy/sell trade call, It is an analysis, trade at your own decisions. Use stop loss whenever trade.
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SNBL key levels (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
These are SNBL key levels 21.51 23.89 26.40 29.03 31.78 34.66 37.67 Note: This is not a buy/sell trade call, It is an analysis, trade at your own decisions. Use stop loss whenever trade.
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Arab Sea Information Systems Co. | July 05, 2026 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Arab Sea Information Systems Co. — Daily Bullish Continuation Idea | July 05, 2026 Symbol: Arab Sea Information Systems Co. — Tadawul Timeframe: Daily Chart Date: July 05, 2026 Arab Sea Information Systems Co. is showing a clean bullish recovery after a long bearish decline. Price has formed a base near the lower area and then moved up with strong bullish displacement, which shows that buyers are starting to take control on the daily timeframe. Now price is holding near the current reaction zone, and the chart is showing a possible bullish continuation setup. The risk area is clearly defined below the current structure, while the upside has multiple marked TP levels. My main idea is simple: if price holds above the recent bullish range and does not break aggressively below the setup area, the next draw can be the first marked TP. After that, if momentum remains strong, the higher TP levels can come into focus. I am not interested in chasing blindly. I want to see price respect the current range, hold above the recent support, and continue with clean bullish candles. For confirmation, I want to see: Price holds above the current bullish range No strong breakdown below the risk zone Daily candles continue showing bullish strength Clean continuation toward the first TP Higher targets only if momentum remains strong This setup looks interesting because price has already shifted from weakness into a stronger recovery phase. Now the key is whether buyers can defend this daily structure. Patience pays. Wait for confirmation, not emotions.
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BinDawood Holding July 05, 2026 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
BinDawood Holding Company — Daily Bullish Continuation Idea | July 05, 2026 Symbol: BinDawood Holding Company — Tadawul Timeframe: Daily Chart Date: July 05, 2026 BinDawood Holding Company is trading around an important monthly FVG Type 1 area. Price has already reacted from this higher-timeframe imbalance and is now trying to hold above it, which shows that buyers may still be defending this zone. The daily structure is starting to look interesting because price is forming a small bullish reaction above the monthly FVG. If this area continues to hold, the next move can be a continuation toward the marked upside target. My main idea is simple: as long as price respects the monthly FVG and does not break aggressively below the invalidation area, I will look for a possible bullish continuation setup. I am not interested in chasing the move blindly. I want to see price hold the current range, form a clean bullish reaction, and then continue with strength toward the target. For confirmation, I want to see: Price holds above the monthly FVG Daily candles show bullish reaction No strong breakdown below the setup area Clean continuation from the current range Move toward the marked TP / buy-side liquidity area This is a patience-based idea. The setup is forming, but confirmation is still important. If buyers continue to defend the monthly FVG, BinDawood can move higher toward the next liquidity target. Patience pays. Wait for confirmation, not emotions.
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Airtel - Trend and Diamond (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
The long-term uptrend remains intact, with price respecting the rising trendline before entering a healthy consolidation phase. The diamond pattern reflects a battle between buyers and sellers, often marking the final stage of consolidation before the next directional move. A decisive breakout above the diamond resistance would indicate renewed buying strength and increase the probability of trend continuation. The measured move from the pattern projects a potential upside of around 13–14%, provided the breakout is supported by strong volume. Until the breakout is confirmed, treat the pattern as a watchlist setup rather than an entry, as false breakouts remain possible within consolidation.
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Radico Khaitan Ltd.  (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Professional Trade Setup — Radico Khaitan Ltd. (Monthly) Parameter Details Instrument Radico Khaitan Ltd. Timeframe Monthly Trend Context Long‑term bullish; short‑term consolidation near upper channel. Entry Zone 3,679 ± 25 pts — near Monthly & Weekly Demand zone. Stop‑Loss 3,302 — below structural support and demand base. Target 4,600 — aligns with projected continuation leg and prior resistance. Risk (pts) 377 Reward (pts) 921 Risk–Reward Ratio 2.4 : 1 Probability High Trade Type Positional / Medium‑term Holding Period 8–12 weeks (approx.) Confirmation Triggers - Bullish candle near 3,650 support. - Volume expansion on breakout above 3,950. - Sustained close above Monthly Demand zone. Invalidation Monthly close below 3,302 with volume. Technical Bias Bullish continuation after demand‑zone retest. Point‑Wise Summary Monthly & Weekly Demand zone (≈ 3,300–3,700) offers high‑probability entry. Stop‑loss 3,302 protects below structural support. Target 4,600 aligns with projected continuation leg. RR 2.4 — moderate but strong probability setup. Trend bias: bullish; momentum expected to resume post‑retest. Probability: high due to multi‑timeframe demand confluence.
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DoorDash, Inc. DASH (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
DoorDash, Inc. is a leading technology platform connecting consumers, merchants, and delivery partners through on-demand commerce. While best known for food delivery, the company continues to expand into groceries, retail, and local commerce, positioning itself within the broader digital convenience economy. From a technical standpoint, the higher-timeframe structure remains constructive, and the lower timeframe is currently providing encouraging confirmation. The developing price action is increasingly consistent with the broader trend, suggesting that buyers are gradually reinforcing the larger market structure. Key technical observations: • Lower-timeframe structure is aligned with the higher-timeframe trend. • Buyer participation appears to be strengthening. • The 200-period moving average remains a simple and objective reference for monitoring trend quality. • Normal market volatility, including the possibility of an additional **Lower Low (LL)**, would not necessarily invalidate the broader bullish structure as long as the higher-timeframe trend remains intact. Technical analysis can improve market timing, while fundamental analysis—through approaches such as DCF, FCFF, FCFE, and intrinsic value assessment—helps evaluate the quality and long-term value of the business. Combining both disciplines often provides a more complete investment framework. Rather than focusing solely on short-term price fluctuations, many investors seek to compound capital by owning fundamentally strong businesses through multiple market cycles, supported by disciplined risk management and patience. This publication reflects a personal interpretation of market structure and publicly available information. It is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Independent research, prudent risk management, and personal due diligence should always precede any investment decision.
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MINDA CORP (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Trade Setup — Minda Corp Ltd. (Monthly) Parameter Details Instrument Minda Corp Ltd. Timeframe Monthly Trend Context Long‑term bullish; breakout continuation from multi‑month consolidation. Entry Zone 635 ± 10 pts — near prior breakout retest and demand zone. Stop‑Loss 610 — below structural support and retest base. Target 800 — aligns with projected recovery leg and upper channel resistance. Risk (pts) 25 Reward (pts) 165 Risk–Reward Ratio 5.87 : 1 Probability High Trade Type Positional / Medium‑term Holding Period 8–12 weeks (approx.) Confirmation Triggers - Bullish candle near 635 support. - Volume expansion on breakout above 700. - Sustained close above 91 SMA (287). Invalidation Monthly close below 610 with volume. Technical Bias Bullish continuation after breakout retest. Point‑Wise Summary Strong support zone (≈ 610–635) offers high‑probability entry. Stop‑loss 610 protects below structural demand. Target 800 aligns with projected breakout extension. Excellent RR (5.87) — ideal for positional trade. Trend bias: bullish; momentum expected to accelerate post‑retest. Probability: high due to breakout confirmation and volume support.
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Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Parameter Details Instrument Kirloskar Pneumatic Co. Ltd. Timeframe Weekly Trend Context Long‑term bullish; short‑term correction toward support zones. Entry Zone 1,705 ± 20 pts — near prior demand and consolidation base. Stop‑Loss 1,444 — below structural support and 91 SMA (1,294). Target 2,600 — aligns with projected recovery leg and prior swing high. Risk (pts) 261 Reward (pts) 895 Risk–Reward Ratio 5.87 : 1 Probability High Trade Type Swing / Positional Holding Period 8–12 weeks (approx.) Confirmation Triggers - Bullish reversal near 1,700 support. - Volume expansion on breakout above 1,850. - Sustained close above 91 SMA. Invalidation Weekly close below 1,444 with volume. Technical Bias Bullish continuation after corrective wave completion. Point‑Wise Summary Strong support zone (≈ 1,450–1,700) offers high‑probability entry. Stop‑loss 1,444 protects below structural demand. Target 2,600 aligns with projected recovery path. Excellent RR (5.87) — ideal for swing positioning. Trend bias: bullish; momentum expected to resume post‑pullback. Probability: high due to confluence of demand and SMA support.
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Technical Setup: Identifying the End of Wave 4 and Potential Wav (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Hi everyone, I am currently tracking this ticker as it approaches what appears to be the completion of a corrective Wave 4 at the previous support zone near $2.50 . My thesis is that this levels sets the stage for an impulsive Wave 5 extension with a target north of $13.00. Looking at the internal structure of the most recent leg, the price action suggests an A-B-C correction into the Wave 4 low, with the final sub-wave of the sequence completing the "C" leg. This count is further supported by current RSI levels and developing bullish divergences, which align well with the expected exhaustion of the corrective phase. I would appreciate any feedback or alternative counts you might have on this setup. Let’s compare notes and refine the entry! Thanks!
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Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. (Weekly) (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Trade Setup — Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. (Weekly) Parameter Details Instrument Karur Vysya Bank Ltd. Timeframe Weekly Trend Context Long‑term bullish; short‑term consolidation near 290 levels. Entry Zone 232 ± 5 pts — near Weekly BUFL and 91 SMA (228.78). Stop‑Loss 220 — below structural support and Weekly BUFL. Target 340 — aligns with projected recovery leg and prior swing high. Risk (pts) 12 Reward (pts) 108 Risk–Reward Ratio 5.87 : 1 Probability High Trade Type Swing / Positional Holding Period 6–8 weeks (approx.) Confirmation Triggers - Bullish reversal candle near 230 support. - Volume expansion on breakout above 280. - Sustained close above 91 SMA. Invalidation Weekly close below 220 with volume. Technical Bias Bullish continuation after corrective wave completion. Point‑Wise Summary Strong Weekly BUFL zone (≈ 228–232) offers high‑probability entry. Stop‑loss 220 protects below structural support. Target 340 aligns with projected recovery path. Excellent RR (5.87) — ideal for swing positioning. Trend bias: bullish; momentum expected to resume post‑pullback. Probability: high due to confluence of demand and SMA support.
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CELH — Bullish Pennant Breakout Setup (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
CELH has formed a textbook Bullish Pennant on the 1D chart — a continuation pattern built from strong momentum followed by controlled consolidation. After a powerful impulsive move, price tightened into a symmetrical pennant with lower highs and higher lows. Volume contracted throughout the consolidation, showing reduced participation and energy compression — exactly what we expect before a breakout. The breakout level sits around 29.66, where buyers stepped back in and pushed price out of the pennant structure. The stop level at 27.46 marks the invalidation zone beneath the lower trendline. The measured move from the pole projects a target near 38.46, aligning with the continuation bias. Momentum has re‑engaged post‑breakout, with price currently trading around 33, moving steadily toward the projected target. Structure remains clean, pivots are well‑defined, and the pattern detector confirms bullish bias with strong R:R quality. This setup highlights classic volatility compression → expansion behavior, with CELH continuing its broader trend after a healthy consolidation phase.
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Hitachi Energy (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
arameter Details Instrument Hitachi Energy India Ltd. Timeframe Daily Trend Context Long‑term bullish; short‑term corrective phase approaching 141 SMA (≈ 26,313). Entry Zone 26,325 ± 50 pts — near 141 SMA and prior demand cluster. Stop‑Loss 23,400 — below structural demand and swing low. Target 38,000 — aligns with projected recovery wave and prior resistance zone. Risk (pts) 2,925 Reward (pts) 11,675 Risk–Reward Ratio 5.87 : 1 Probability High Trade Type Swing / Positional Holding Period 6–10 weeks (approx.) Confirmation Triggers - Bullish reversal candle near 26,300 support. - Volume expansion on breakout above 30,000. - Sustained close above 91 SMA (30,381). Invalidation Daily close below 23,400 with volume. Technical Bias Bullish continuation after corrective wave completion. Commentary The dotted yellow projection indicates a two‑phase recovery: short‑term retest of support followed by a strong impulsive leg toward 38,000. The 26,300 zone acts as a confluence of moving‑average support and prior demand, making it a high‑probability entry area. Maintain position sizing discipline — risk per trade ≤ 1–2 % of capital.
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Another accumulation phase is developing. (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Over the past two years, similar sideways structures have repeatedly been followed by strong bullish expansions. Will history repeat? Nobody knows. But one thing is certain: Markets alternate between Accumulation → Expansion → Distribution → Correction. Right now, Jamuna Bank appears to be in another accumulation phase inside an established rising channel. The next move will depend on whether buyers can break the current range with convincing volume. Price first. Opinion second. Points to be noted: AGM July 27, will Jamuna Bank change it's 29% cash dividend into bonus and cash? like NCC??
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Cemindia Project (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Structure: Price has surged from the Weekly DMIP & Monthly BUFL zone (≈ 760 – 880), confirming strong demand absorption. Bias: As long as price holds above 825, the setup favors continuation toward 1,500. Momentum: Weekly candle shows +19.4% gain — strong breakout with volume confirmation. Trend Context: Both 91 SMA (700) and 141 SMA (590) are trending upward, reinforcing long‑term bullish structure. TRADE SETUP — Cemindia Projects Ltd. (Weekly) Item Trade 1 Entry 900 Stop‑Loss 825 Target 1,500 Risk (pts) 69 Reward (pts) 405 RR Ratio 5.87 Probability High
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RR KABEL (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Interpretation Structure: Price pulled back toward the Daily DMIP zone (1,940 – 2,100) visible on your chart. Bias: As long as price holds above 1,965, the setup favors a continuation toward 2,548. Risk–Reward: Excellent (> 5 RR) — ideal for tactical swing positioning. Momentum: Supported by strong prior trend and distance from 91 SMA (1,757) and 141 SMA (1,645). TRADE SETUP — RR Kabel Ltd. (NSE) Item Trade 1 Entry 2,039 Stop‑Loss 1,965 Target 2,548 Risk (pts) 69 Reward (pts) 405 RR Ratio 5.87 Probability High
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The trend deserves more respect than opinions (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
IDLC Finance has maintained a sequence of higher highs and higher lows after confirming several bullish Breaks of Structure. Price is now approaching a long-term resistance trendline, making the coming weekly candles particularly important. Rather than predicting, I prefer to observe how price reacts at key levels. A confirmed breakout would strengthen the bullish outlook, while rejection could lead to a healthy pullback toward the demand zones before the next move.
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4013 Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Daily Bullish Recovery Idea | July 05 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group Co. — Daily Bullish Recovery Idea | July 05, 2026 Symbol: Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group Co. — Tadawul Timeframe: Daily Chart Date: July 05, 2026 Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group is trading around a very interesting higher-timeframe area. Price has already reacted from the yearly FVG, suggesting that long-term buyers are defending this zone. Since then, the market has been building a base instead of making new lows, which is often an early sign of accumulation. My main expectation is a gradual bullish recovery rather than an immediate explosive move. I want to see price continue respecting the yearly FVG, reclaim the nearby resistance area, and then target the previous monthly high. If buyers remain in control, the larger higher-timeframe target can come into focus later. The roadmap I am watching is straightforward: Hold above the yearly FVG support. Continue building a bullish daily structure. Break and hold above the nearby resistance zone. Reclaim the previous monthly high. Continue toward the higher-timeframe target if momentum remains strong. I am not interested in chasing candles after a strong rally. The better opportunity comes from waiting for confirmation and allowing the market to prove that buyers are still in control. This setup offers an attractive reward if the higher-timeframe support continues to hold, but patience is essential. Patience pays. Let the market confirm the move before committing to a position.
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MUGHAL | Breakout Above PKR100 Could Unlock the Next Bullish Leg (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
After several months of rebuilding its structure, MUGHAL is once again approaching a key resistance zone that has rejected price multiple times in the past. What caught my attention isn't just the rally—it's the improvement in market structure. The stock has transitioned from making lower lows to forming higher lows and higher highs, suggesting that buyers are gradually regaining control. The highlighted ABCD measured move projects a potential upside objective around PKR 130, but that projection only comes into play if price can successfully clear the major resistance ahead. Technical Overview Price is trading above the 200-day moving average, indicating improving long-term sentiment. The recent advance has created a series of higher lows, keeping the bullish structure intact. RSI is strengthening and approaching bullish territory, reflecting positive momentum. The ABCD harmonic projection points toward the PKR 130 region as a potential measured move. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Zone PKR 95 – 100 This remains the most important area on the chart. It aligns with: Previous swing resistance Psychological Rs100 level R1 and R2 Pivot Resistance A decisive close above this zone, supported by stronger volume, would significantly improve the bullish outlook. Support Levels Pivot: PKR 83.87 As long as price holds above the pivot area, buyers remain in control. Additional supports: S1: PKR 77.75 S2: PKR 67.89 Trading Plan ✅ Bullish Scenario If MUGHAL closes above the 95–100 resistance zone with convincing volume, it would confirm a breakout and could pave the way for the next leg higher. In that case, the ABCD projection around PKR 130 becomes a realistic medium-term objective. ⏳ Neutral Scenario If buyers fail to break resistance immediately, the stock may continue consolidating between the pivot area and resistance. A period of sideways movement after a strong rally would be healthy before another attempt. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario A sustained move below the pivot level would weaken the current bullish structure and could increase the probability of a retest of the lower support zones. My View The chart is becoming increasingly constructive, but I believe the 100 area is the real decision point. Rather than chasing the current move, I would prefer to see a confirmed breakout with participation before assuming the measured move will play out. For now, the trend favors the bulls—but confirmation remains the key. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and reflects my personal interpretation of the chart. It is not financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management before making any trading decisions. #MUGHAL #PSX #PakistanStockExchange #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ChartPattern #ABCDPattern #SwingTrading #Breakout #StockMarket #Investing #TradingView #SupportResistance #MarketStructure #RiskManagement
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Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Daily Bullish Continuation Idea July (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co. — Daily Bullish Continuation Idea | July 05, 2026 Symbol: Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co. — Tadawul Timeframe: Daily Chart Date: July 05, 2026 Dar Al Arkan is showing a clean bullish idea on the daily timeframe. Price has already reacted from the monthly FVG area and is now holding above that zone, which shows buyers are still defending the higher-timeframe imbalance. The market spent time consolidating after the first bullish move, and now price is trying to push higher again. This type of structure can become interesting if the daily candles continue to hold above the monthly FVG and start showing stronger bullish displacement. My main idea is simple: as long as price respects the monthly FVG and does not break back aggressively below the recent support area, the next draw on liquidity can be the marked upside target zone. I am not interested in entering blindly. I would prefer to see price hold this area, create a clean bullish reaction, and then continue toward the higher targets. For confirmation, I want to see: Price holds above the monthly FVG Daily structure remains bullish No strong breakdown below the recent support Bullish displacement from the current range Continuation toward the marked upside target This is a patience-based setup. The monthly FVG has already acted as an important area, and now the main question is whether buyers can continue defending it. Patience pays. Wait for confirmation, not emotions.
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MSTR: Decision Zone Between Bearish Wave (4) and Bullish Wave (1 (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
MSTR | Strategy Inc. | 1D Core Idea MSTR is trading at a major Elliott Wave decision point. The current reaction from the orange zone can be read in two ways: bearish count: the bounce becomes Wave (4), followed by a final Wave (5) lower bullish alternative: the same move develops as a new impulsive Wave (1), followed by a corrective Wave (2) That makes the next recovery phase very important. The structure of the bounce matters more than the bounce itself. Current Structure The decline from the 457 area still looks impulsive on the higher timeframe. The current low was reached inside the orange projection zone, near the 138.0% extension at 116.832 and above the deeper 161.8% area around 43.824. The reaction is constructive, but it has not yet confirmed a full trend reversal. The first important confirmation is 199.854. Above that level, the recovery can extend into the larger 224.827 to 314.152 zone. Bearish Count In the bearish count, the current rebound is only Wave (4) of the larger decline. The projected Wave (4) area sits between: 224.827: 38.2% retracement 269.490: 50.0% retracement 314.152: 61.8% retracement If price rejects from that zone, a final Wave (5) lower remains possible. The lower target area would then be around 80.021 first, with a deeper extension toward 43.824 to 42.785. Bullish Alternative The alternative count becomes interesting if the recovery from the orange zone unfolds impulsively. In that case, the market may not be building a bearish Wave (4), but a new bullish Wave (1). A later pullback into the projected Wave (2) zone would then be the key test. The preferred Wave (2) support zone after a bullish impulse would be: 167.163: 50.0% retracement 137.613: 61.8% retracement If that pullback holds corrective and price turns higher again, the bullish count becomes much stronger. Key Levels 116.832: current reaction / 138.0% extension 100.770: current price area 80.021: deeper bearish target 43.824 to 42.785: extreme lower target zone 199.854: first recovery confirmation 224.827 to 314.152: Wave (4) or bullish Wave (1) target zone 314.639: larger bullish confirmation 167.163 to 137.613: future Wave (2) support if the bullish count activates Trading Interpretation The setup is not about guessing the bottom. The market first needs to show whether the current rebound is corrective or impulsive. A weak three-wave recovery into 224 to 314 would favor the bearish Wave (4) count. A strong impulsive advance followed by a controlled Wave (2) pullback would favor the bullish alternative. Momentum is improving from a depressed area, but confirmation is still required. Conclusion MSTR is at a major count decision. Below 199.854, the bearish structure remains dominant. Above 199.854, the recovery can extend into the Wave (4) / Wave (1) decision zone. The real signal comes afterward: rejection favors Wave (5) lower, while an impulsive recovery and corrective Wave (2) would shift the chart into a bullish reversal structure.
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