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Buyers are here but (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Buyers are here in the S&P 500 daily chart but can they maintain this momentum going into the weekend with a positive close. 6000 is the next objective for a close going into the weekend.
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2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral below 5990, max bullish above. Bearish only below 5900. I have the close near a bear and a bull trend line, so tough spot for any prediction. I do think after so many attempts by the bears, they have given up and we are now free to do the second round of this blow-off top. Consider me surprised if we continue in my drawn bull channel and bears can get this down 60+ points again. comment : Daily chart tells you 4 consecutive bull bars on increasing volume. Very high chance tomorrow the bears will give up and we test 6050+ again. The bear trend line could still be valid or not, we will only know tomorrow. Above 5980/5990 we will see an acceleration upwards. On the 1h tf you can make a case for 5980 being at the crossing of bull and bear trend line but we will have an answer tomorrow morning. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5855 - 6100 bull case: Higher lows and higher highs. Bulls want a retest of the ath and above. I have a measured move target at 6150 and even above 6300. Bulls have all the arguments on their side for a second leg up but to get it, they would have to prevent the market from getting another strong move down to below 5920. It should probably stay above 5950 to trap many bears who sold the highs again. Invalidation is below 5940ish. bear case : Bears do not have much tbh. They sold every high the last days but selling is getting weaker and they can only do it so often before they stop and will only try higher again. Best case for bears is to stay below 5990 and do what we did the whole week, sell the highs for at least 60 points. Invalidation is above 5990. short term: Bullish. Above 5990 uber bullish for new ath. Neutral below 5950 and below. Only below 5800 I turn bear. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Same as dax. Yesterdays’ lows held and longs around 5905 were beyond amazing.
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VX Coming Back to Life (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Today's opening 15 minutes was one of the more wild ones I've seen. It's been a wild week in general. Every single morning we have been hit with war fear news right at open. Each one led to a big VX spike and near instant recovery. You can see the huge spikes every morning, starting with last Friday. What I think is important here is that it has came right back up every time. Despite getting sold off after every rip, it ends up higher a few days later. This is a big change from what we've seen this year. VX has not been able to sustain any moves up whatsoever. I'm seeing a lot of potential strength being built up. We have another descending bullish wedge formation, this one is more of a broadening wedge. We'll see if this time is any different. Looking for a move up to 18.40 or back down to 15.25. All of these dips on SPY getting bought could very well lead to more upside and squeezes. My intuition tells me this has not been normal action and the market is preparing for a big move after whip sawing back and forth all week. a VX breakout would confirm that will be a move to the downside, especially if SPY falls below $585 at the same time.
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$NQ Possible PM Session Buy *SMC* (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Edit: OOPS! I pulled the chart too far back when publishing. I would suggest looking at the chat with the high and the low of the day as well as including the asian session from yesterday. like this https://www.tradingview.com/x/qIEsq4os/ *Smart Money Concepts is the technical analysis that takes the opposite appproach of retail ttechnical analysis. Don't think as if you were taught the first time to trade. Think as if you're a market maker and can manipulate the market. In th 5 min chart of Nasdaq Futures. There's a small unbalanced candle that breaks the most recent high (Not a major high just a session mid-high). The bottom of that FVG is also the top of that short high that triggers liquidity at $20780.25 See Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/CxGa2PxI/ If price reaches int that FVG, I will jump in with a PM session silver Bulllet opportunity. Keep in mind. that you have two bearish breakers/order blocks on your way up. However, considering we haven't been breaking lows, I have a feeling the afternoon session will be going for breaking Liquidity in a high, above 20,905. and OANDA:NAS100USD possibly to the Top of the 1 HR Breaker. see chart. https://www.tradingview.com/x/fuzI9waJ/ If it doesn't fall back into this area. I'll just sit n my hands and not risk chasing something I do not see that a institution would would do. Entry is 20791.00, Full Take Profit 20918.00 (Possibly banking two take profits along the way as it hits bearish breakers and moving the stop loss to even.) Srop loss will depend on time. If before 2pm NY Time then 20700.75. Be careful after 2 p.m. as price will have a tendency to move a lot faster and your stop loss could get hit in a matter of minutes. So I would shallow it to 20,780, and look for another entry Good luck and happy trading. CME_MINI:NQ1! OANDA:NAS100USD PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
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VMA setup. (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Velocity moving average. We trade structure And never fear of a manipulation! We get in on beginning wick entry.
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ES Morning Session Review 11-21-24 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Going over the morning session ES looking back for clues as to what the market was telling us. extremely difficult day. did barely any trades today. got stopped on a bunch of swing longs but keep working hard. tomorrow is a new day. taking it light rest of the day unless we get some A+ setups after 2pm EST
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s&p lunchbreak, or major pullback? (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
it doesnt seem like the consolidation in major indices has been destructive in terms of major disruption due to current volatility according to these machine learning and adaptive trend based algorithms. as long as we stay above a rising average we should trend toward the mean of the channel provided there isnt a major destabilizing event geopolitically or otherwise. its looking more and more like a weekly higher low is more or less set, and the index wants to return to around the 6020 level. if we fail to break the day high here, i would look for any daily higher low above tuesdays low for bull continuation.
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Road to $150 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Until this cup/arc breaks, the road to $150 by 2026 is still in play.
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WHAT'S FLOWING: CRYPTO / COMMODITIES / FX / EQUITIES (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
In today's episode of What's Flowing, we navigated key market trends across multiple asset classes with a deep dive into the following insights: Crypto Bulls: UNIUSD and ZENUSD showed strong upward momentum, signaling bullish opportunities with favorable accumulation zones. Commodity Spotlight: Brent oil exhibited continued strength, marking a bullish trend, while metals like M6E22024 and SI2024 displayed bearish tendencies, reinforcing the importance of hedging strategies. Forex Trends: AUDNZD and EURCHF revealed bearish structures, while NZDCAD highlighted a strong bearish sentiment with a trendline breach and declining momentum. Equities and Indices: The IWM, XLU, and RSP sectors demonstrated robust bullish trajectories, reflecting broader market optimism. GER30, however, showed a bearish reversal, suggesting caution in European equities. This episode underscored how our tailored technical analysis tools, coupled with advanced TPO visualizations, help traders identify critical entry and exit points, ensuring precise execution. Stay tuned for more actionable insights as we continue to track evolving market flows!
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Day 1 , strategy 1. Learn how to use the adaptive ema indicator (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Day 1 , strategy 1. Learn how to use the adaptive ema indicator. Number of entries showed. when to buy or sell showed what trades i took showed important - you can trade without options too.
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journal 10 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
November 21 monthly bullish , weekly bullish , daily bullish we again did again what i predicted during newyork taking out buyside liquidity followed my plan waiting for 10-11 am zone waited for the breaker and got in on the retest , up another 7% honestly this week was great , literally predicted most the moves did not react or chase price lost 1 trade and that was only because i didn't let the liquidity fully be taken and breaker be made feeling way more confident and not caring about missing the move (also the breaker is on the 1min)
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Update: GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, SPDR Sectors, SPY, QQQ & More (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
The markets are really struggling this morning. The strong selling after the open is likely an indication traders are not buying into the hype right now. NVDA earnings hit and drove the markets a bit higher into the open. I see this selling pressure as a BIG SHIFT into my Anomaly Event. Gold & Silver are reacting to the downside. SPTD sectors, particularly XLE (Energy) is still showing strong upward trends - while many of the others have already started to move downward. I'm watching XLF and XLRE for a breakdown event. The SPY & QQQ are showing broad weakness right now. Prepare for my Price Anomaly Event. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
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Gas futures at 6-month highs, will oil follow? (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Oil futures NYMEX:CL1! are forming a weekly reversal pattern at support levels Gas futures NYMEX:NG1! already made the same pattern and rebounded strongly and is now making 6-month highs The US energy sector AMEX:XLE is already discounting that a rebound in oil will happen, as it is near all time highs
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MXMM Sell Idea (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Hey Guys, I'd like to share my Short Idea following the Market Maker Sell Model. We broke through the PDH with a lot of volatility which is the reason why im waiting for more market structure so i can execute the trade more safely. I would like to see some consolidation forming following with a another liquidity grab so i can catch a Smart Money Reversal. -T-
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NQ_One Hour_Bullish_+634 Ticks (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
The NQ one hour time frame is in an up channel. The market is at a low price in the buy zone hitting the bottom of the up channel. The market has an up Fibonacci with an extension price point 21046.00 about +634 ticks above the market. It will be a good idea to look for long ideas as long as the market stays in the buy zone. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: 20365.00 LIMIT: 21046.00 Another Entry Idea: Turn to the five minute time frame and look for your favorite entry strategy in the direction of the one hour price target.
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Gold BAT pattern (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
DEC10th FOMC meeting 75+% down 25bp. ZCIS swap up to 3%. 10y yield about highest. assumed condition: Gold bat pattern COMEX:GC1! short @2667 stop buy@2685 prz 1st 2625-2560 prz 2nd 2775
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SPX - Downside into Thanksgiving? (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
It's a great day in the world and I hope you're having a great day as well. I'm looking at the potential for SPX to make a downward move going into next week as it has in prior years. I'm looking at a 5 wave structure down from the highs in early November followed by what currently appears to be a 3 wave structure up into where we currently are. If the structure is correct, we should move up a little bit today into the golden zone that I've outlined on the chart and reject from there. If we do get that rejection and we start to take out some of the pivots which I outlined in the video, we should have increased confidence in the short idea. Nothing is certain and all trades should have risk managed in some way or another, but we should see a move down to 5800 if this holds true. It's about a 180 point move from where we are now with only about 25 point risk. Trade carefully and always ask questions in the comments below if you have them.
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BANKNIFTY (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
BANKNIFTY levels are based on imbalances 1. gapup 50600 long 2. 50600-50100 trade breakout 3. gapdown 50300 short
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NIFTY (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
NIFTY levels are based on imbalances 1. gapup 23400 long 2. 23400-23300 trade breakout 3. gapdown 23300 short
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FCPO Daily Analysis for 21 November 2024: Drop and Reverse (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
The FCPO market on 21 November 2024 highlighted the intricate dance between trend-following strategies and counter-trend opportunities. While the daily chart hints at a pivotal moment for the broader trend, the hourly and 5-minute charts revealed the nuanced dynamics of intraday reversals. As we gear up for tomorrow, staying vigilant around support and resistance levels will be crucial. With the right blend of patience and decisiveness, traders can navigate the next session effectively. Remember, the market rewards preparation and punishes hesitation—stay sharp and trade wisely! Read full article from website Master FCPO trading.
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ES morning update Nov 21 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
This week has revolved around one key levels: 5886, the “money magnet.” Bulls dominate above it, bears take over below. Late yesterday, I was anticipating a rally to 5908, 5922, and 5942+, and we hit those levels and more. As of now: 5942 is weak support. Holding above keeps 5960 and 5971+ in play. If 5942 fails, expect a dip to 5932, then 5908-11.
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Overnight ES price ACtion REview 11-21-24 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Going over Price Action ES overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we are going to trade today. we are Risk Mangers first and foremost.
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Gold rises amid escalation in preparation for negotiations in UA (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Gold continues to rise for the fourth consecutive day, regaining the level of $2,670 per ounce, which represents the highest levels in ten days. Gold’s gains come amid the mutual escalation on the Russian-Ukrainian front, which sparks fears that the conflict is entering a new phase that may not be contained. Amid this escalation of geopolitical concerns since the weekend, the physical gold exchange-traded fund SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has recorded positive net flows throughout the past sessions this week, in addition to those from last Friday, which totaled nearly $694 million. Meanwhile, the GLD ETF has never recorded net positive flows for four consecutive sessions except since last March. These inflows towards GLD and the gains in the yellow metal come in defiance of the growing pessimism about the possibility of cutting high interest rates in the US next year, which may highlight the state of uncertainty that the markets are experiencing. This pessimism comes in turn from the possibility of inflation returning to the rise – which has already accelerated in October – in addition to the cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials, led by Jerome Powell. As markets no longer expect a 25-basis point interest rate cut in January, with a probability of only 15%, after it was highly likely more than a month ago, according to CME FedWatch Tool figures. Geopolitical factors continue to return to the forefront again with the recent step taken by the US administration, which is sending anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. This comes after allowing Ukraine to use advanced ATACMS missiles to target the Russian depth, which actually happened and resulted in Russia amending its nuclear doctrine. These mines were banned from Ukraine during the past two years of war and are subject to wide international restrictions. While these mines may be used to confront Russian advances in the Ukrainian depth. Therefore, I believe that this step may be in the context of Ukraine’s quest to retain as much territory as possible and increase military pressure in order to strengthen its negotiating position in any potential talks. Russia has already been increasing its pressure in an unprecedented manner in recent weeks, in what may seem like a preemptive move for any negotiations under the new Republican administration, as it needs to expand its control – currently around 70-80% according to Reuters – over as much of the territories it has annexed to its sovereignty as possible. While Reuters says, citing sources, that Russian President Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a ceasefire agreement, he rules out making any major concessions on the annexed territories. However, the sources also said that there is still room for negotiation on the division of those territories. However, what may be worrisome about this mutual escalation, even if it ultimately aims to sit at the negotiating table in a strong position for both sides, is that it may involve the risk of misrepresentation, especially with the return of talk of using nuclear weapons again. While the containment of this escalation and the inability of the newly supplied weapons to Ukraine to shift the balance of power in a significant in the latter’s favor may reduce concerns about the conflict getting out of control. This may redirect attention back to market fundamentals that may not be in favor of the yellow metal with concerns about the return of rising inflation and higher-for- longer rates. Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com
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The current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slight (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
The current outlook for crude oil appears mixed but leans slightly bullish due to the following factors: Inventory Trends: While there was a smaller-than-expected build in crude oil inventories (+500,000 barrels), it contrasts with larger builds from previous weeks. Additionally, gasoline inventories rose, but middle distillate inventories only slightly declined, signaling some supply-demand balancing. Geopolitical Risks: Tensions between Russia and Ukraine add a potential "war premium" to prices, but the market reaction has been muted compared to previous years, suggesting limited immediate impact. Chinese Demand: Signs of improving demand from China—a major oil consumer—provide support for a bullish sentiment as global demand stabilizes. IEA Forecast: The International Energy Agency now suggests tighter-than-expected supply, revising its Q4 inventory decline estimate from 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to over 1.1 million bpd. This implies a more constrained market moving forward. However, bearish risks stem from: Perceptions of a generally well-supplied market, potentially capping upside momentum. Reduced war-related price shocks compared to prior years. Conclusion for Traders: Crude oil shows bullish potential, especially if demand signals from China strengthen or inventory draws accelerate. Short-term volatility remains, but opportunities might exist for buying dips rather than shorting, particularly as geopolitical risks and seasonal demand factors play out. ILL CONSIDER SCALING IN EVEN MORE AT EACH GREEN LINE. COT report suggests some bullish momentum for this week
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Day Trading Nifty-21st Nov ’24 (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
Below mentioned points are discussed in my post analysis video(Fast forward to 1:55 for Hindi Audio) -Traded Morning and second half -Good Sell Volumes in the morning before 10 -Sold BankNifty Twice
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6J1!: Yen Strengthens Ahead of Ueda's Insights (Thu, 21 Nov 2024)
The Japanese Yen (6J1!) has been demonstrating notable strength against its American counterpart throughout the Asian trading session, as traders position themselves ahead of a highly anticipated appearance by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo later today. His remarks on the economic outlook, inflation dynamics, and the timeline for potential interest rate hikes will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the trajectory of the Yen. As we approach Ueda's address, there is a palpable sense of anticipation in the markets. Investors are keen to understand how the BoJ plans to navigate the current economic landscape, particularly in light of growing inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties. With the central bank grappling with the balancing act of stimulating growth while containing inflation, Governor Ueda's insights will be closely scrutinized for clues on the BoJ's monetary policy direction. Nonetheless, there remains an undercurrent of uncertainty regarding the prospect of further policy tightening by the BoJ. This hesitation among traders may hinder the aggressive positioning of JPY bulls, leading to more cautious trading behavior as they await clearer signals from the central bank. The market's apprehension is evident, as many participants remain wary of overcommitting until Ueda provides more clarity on the BoJ's stance. From a technical analysis perspective, the rebound in the Yen’s price has been particularly notable, as it has entered what we identify as a demand zone. This area indicates a clear oversold condition, which suggests that the currency may be primed for a reversal. The fact that retail traders are significantly short on the Yen adds another layer of intrigue; if the anticipated bullish movement occurs, these short positions could lead to a rapid shift in market dynamics. Our forecasting models indicate that, when looking back over the last ten years, there is a strong possibility for the Yen to enter a bullish phase soon. Historical patterns suggest that, following periods of significant oversold conditions, the Yen has often embarked on upward price movements. As such, the current environment may present a unique opportunity for those looking to capitalize on potential appreciation of the currency. As we await Ueda’s comments, all eyes will be on how his insights might either reinforce or challenge the current market sentiments surrounding the Yen. Any indications of a future tightening of monetary policy could catalyze a swift rally, while ambiguity could lead to heightened volatility. Ultimately, the interplay between investor sentiment, technical signals, and central bank communication will determine the Yen's trajectory in the hours and days ahead. ✅ Please share your thoughts about YEN in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
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