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JP225: Testing 70,000 Resistance Amid FX Intervention Risks (Sun, 12 Jul 2026)
【JP225: 4H Chart】 Current Status: After plunging to the 65,300 level earlier last week, the Nikkei has rebounded following the US indices. However, the 4H EMA remains in a death cross, and the major psychological resistance at 70,000 has yet to be tested. We are currently in an ambiguous zone where neither bulls nor bears have full control. Strategy: Watch out for USD/JPY intervention risks. Although no direct intervention was confirmed last week, the 4H chart for USD/JPY is on the verge of a sell signal as of July 10, keeping the market on edge. I maintain my bearish bias as long as price stays below the critical 70,000 resistance. Action: Maintaining "probing shorts" (small positions) with 70,000 as the line in the sand. However, if the US500 shows decisive strength, I will reconsider my stance and prepare to pivot to long positions. Summary: A tug-of-war between US market strength and Yen intervention fears. I am closely monitoring whether the 70,000 "ceiling" holds or breaks in early Monday trading. #JP225 #Nikkei225 #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis
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S&P500 (Sat, 11 Jul 2026)
Buy setup is purely fueled by trend line breakout We should expect more bullish move in the future
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NI225: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short! (Sat, 11 Jul 2026)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/t2Oc1Ze2/ My dear friends, Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️ The price is near a wide key level and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 68,557.68 Therefore, a strong bearish reaction here could determine the next move down.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 67,969.42. Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
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Nikkei 225 index Wave Analysis – 9 July 2026 (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
- Nikkei 225 reversed from support zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 72575.00 Nikkei 225 index recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 66000.00, lower daily Bollinger Band and the support trendline of the daily up channel from March. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Lon-Legged Doji. Given the clear daily uptrend, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 72575.00 (which stopped earlier wave (1)).
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Nikkei Moves More Positive, Targeting Resistance (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
The benchmark Nikkei 225 index IG:NIKKEI surged sharply by +2.0%, rocketing above the psychological level of 68,000, while the Topix index also strengthened by +0.4% to 4,022, effectively breaking a two-day losing streak following the mass capitulation earlier in the week. Ignoring the tactical volatility of global markets following last night's FOMC meeting minutes, regional smart money immediately launched a massive buying blitz. This bold move was fueled by evidence of extraordinary physical demand for AI infrastructure from New York, dampening negative sentiment surrounding Bain Capital's complete exit from the Japanese memory industry. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ✅ SK Hynix's US Listing Draft Oversubscribed 7-fold This is the key bullet that shattered scepticism about AI capex ROI concerns: - Massive Validation of Western Liquidity: Official pre-listing documents confirm that South Korean memory giant SK Hynix's planned US listing (ADR) was more than seven times oversubscribed. A massive wholesale buying spree hit the Japanese tech sector's leading capitalisation leaders this afternoon: - Advantest Corporation ($6,857) Rampages Record +6.9%: The giant semiconductor chip test equipment maker led the charge, capitalising on the recovery in global hardware sentiment. - Tokyo Electron ($8,035) & Murata Manufacturing ($6,981) Soar Together +4.0%: The chip and passive electronic component manufacturing giant was flooded with foreign capital, validating the ongoing quarterly technology cycle reversal. - Fujikura Ltd ($5803) Jumps Resiliently +5.1%: The global fibre optic and copper cable producer cluster bounced back stiffly, recovering all of its losses last week after being corrected by the AI ​​chip production brake.
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Japan 225 — Sharp Pullback Tests Key Support (Wed, 08 Jul 2026)
Japan 225 — Sharp Pullback Tests Key Support, Can Buyers Defend the Structure? 1. Market Overview Japan 225 is currently trading around the 66,000–66,500 area after a sharp pullback from the recent upper range near 72,000–73,000. The index previously showed strong bullish momentum, but the latest decline suggests that short-term sellers have become more aggressive. The recent move lower is important because price is now approaching a key support region that may decide whether this is only a healthy correction within a broader uptrend, or the beginning of a deeper bearish reversal. Buyers need to react soon, especially around the 65,000–66,000 area. If this zone holds, Japan 225 may attempt to stabilize. If it breaks, the correction could extend further. 2. Market Structure From a market structure perspective, Japan 225 is shifting from a bullish structure into a short-term corrective phase. The broader move from May to late June showed a clear bullish structure, with price forming higher highs and higher lows. However, after reaching the 72,000–73,000 area, the index failed to maintain upside momentum and started to form lower short-term highs. The current pullback has weakened the short-term structure, but the broader trend has not fully turned bearish yet. The key question is whether buyers can defend the previous demand zone near 65,000–66,000. If this support holds, the broader bullish structure may remain alive. If price breaks below this area, the market structure could shift into a deeper correction. 3. Daily / 4H Multi-Timeframe View On the 4H timeframe, the latest price action is clearly corrective. Sellers have pushed price lower from the 70,000 area, and the index is now testing a lower support zone. The short-term momentum currently favors sellers. From the broader daily perspective, Japan 225 still appears to be in a larger recovery trend, but the recent pullback is a warning sign. A daily close below the 65,000 area would weaken the broader structure and suggest that the correction may not be finished yet. In short, the 4H chart shows strong short-term selling pressure, while the daily structure is still trying to protect the broader bullish trend. 4. Key Resistance 68,000–69,000 This is the immediate resistance zone. If Japan 225 rebounds, this area may be the first place where sellers react again. 70,000–71,000 This is the next important resistance zone. A recovery above this area would show that buyers are regaining control. 72,000–73,000 This is the recent upper range and major resistance zone. A sustained move above this area would be needed to confirm stronger bullish continuation. 5. Key Support 65,000–66,000 This is the immediate key support zone. Price is currently testing this area, and buyer reaction here will be very important. 63,500–64,000 This is the next support zone if price breaks below 65,000. A move into this area would suggest that correction pressure is increasing. 62,000–63,000 This is the major lower support zone. A clean break below this area would strongly weaken the broader bullish structure. 6. Momentum & Volatility Check Momentum is currently bearish in the short term. The pullback from the 70,000–71,000 area has been fast, which shows that sellers are active and that buyers have not yet fully regained control. Volatility has also increased during the decline, meaning price may continue to move quickly around key support and resistance levels. If Japan 225 can stabilize above 65,000, momentum may start to improve. However, if price breaks below 65,000 with strong selling pressure, the next downside move may accelerate. 7. Bullish Factors The first bullish factor is that the index is now approaching a previous demand zone around 65,000–66,000, where buyers may try to defend the broader structure. The second positive point is that the broader trend from May is not fully broken yet. A strong reaction from support could turn this decline into a normal corrective pullback. The third factor is that price is already near a short-term oversold area after the recent decline, which may attract buyers looking for a rebound setup. A confirmed recovery above 68,000 would be the first sign that buyers are returning. 8. Bearish Risks The main bearish risk is the speed of the recent decline. Japan 225 failed to hold above 70,000 and quickly moved lower, which shows that sellers are becoming more aggressive. If price fails to defend 65,000–66,000, the current correction could deepen. Another risk is that the index has started forming lower short-term highs. If the next rebound fails below 68,000–69,000, sellers may continue to control the short-term structure. A clean break below 63,000 would be a stronger bearish signal. 9. Bullish Scenario If Japan 225 holds above 65,000–66,000 and rebounds with confirmation, buyers may push price back toward 68,000–69,000. If price breaks above 69,000, the next upside target would be 70,000–71,000. A sustained move above 71,000 would suggest that the correction is losing strength and that buyers may attempt to retest the 72,000–73,000 resistance zone. 10. Bearish Scenario If Japan 225 breaks below 65,000, short-term bearish pressure may increase. In that case, price could move lower toward 63,500–64,000. If this zone also fails to hold, the next downside area to watch would be 62,000–63,000. A clean break below 62,000 would weaken the broader bullish structure and suggest that the index may enter a deeper correction phase. 11. Market Sentiment Market sentiment is currently neutral to cautiously bearish. The broader trend still has some bullish foundation, but the latest pullback has clearly damaged short-term momentum. Buyers need to defend the 65,000–66,000 zone to keep the recovery structure alive. Above 68,000, sentiment may start to improve. Below 65,000, bearish pressure may increase. Below 63,000, the correction may become deeper. 1 2. Trading Plan Style Summary Plan: - Above 68,000: recovery momentum may start to improve. - Between 65,000 and 68,000: support testing and consolidation may continue. - Below 65,000: short-term bearish pressure may increase. - Below 63,000: the broader bullish structure may weaken. The key area to watch is 65,000–66,000. If buyers defend this zone, Japan 225 may attempt a rebound. If this support fails, sellers may push the index into a deeper correction. 13. Interactive Question Will Japan 225 defend the 65,000–66,000 support zone and rebound toward 68,000–70,000? Or will sellers break support and push the index toward 63,000? Please share your view below.
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Nikkei 225 wedge points to breakout risk (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
Our Nikkei 225 contract is coiling within what resembles a falling wedge pattern, raising the prospect of an eventual bullish breakout and retest of the record high. That would fit with the broader technical picture, with the price in a strong uptrend while continuing to hold above the key medium and longer-term moving averages, all of which have a positive slope. Of course, that's no guarantee we'll see a breakout, but traders should be alert to the risk. A sustained move above wedge resistance, preferably on a closing basis, would allow for longs to be set with a tight stop below the breakout level, targeting the record high at 73,520. 72,000 is a level of note in between, marking the swing high set on July 1. The oscillators are more neutral than bullish or bearish. RSI (14) has posted a series of lower highs but remains marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has crossed the signal line from above but continues to hold in positive territory. It’s more a cautionary message for bulls than a green light for bears. As such, for now, I'd place more emphasis on price action. Good luck! DS
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NIKKEI225 (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
I was playing this weekend with Relative Volume indicators. I figured out "the obvious" :-), that combining them with structure market analysis it has a lot of potencial on having an edge to predict what would price will do and hit some profits! Let me know your thougths!
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Japan 225: The Supercycle Blueprint (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
Comprehensive Structural Doctrine on the Behavior and Geometry of the Japan 225 Index ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Root Cause & Macromarket Structural Dissection (Multi-Timeframe Monthly & Weekly Doctrine) This analytical suite is the result of a rigorous, step-by-step top-down frequency dissection from macro to micro scale. Tracking the Monthly Timeframe reveals that the market has been developing within a multi-decadal macrostructure since 1950; a trend that completed its initial expanding phase with the liquidation of the 1990 Japanese asset bubble, securely bounded its strategic peaks and troughs, and has now stabilized inside the core of a large-degree contracting and impulsive bullish branch. Deciphering this structure down to the Weekly Timeframe exposes that the market's prior resting and consolidation phase consumed exactly 3 times the duration of its preceding bullish swing. This relentless, tight compression—manifesting as a running spring—has locked an exceptionally heavy and rare bullish potential into the market's genetic blueprint, which is now inheriting its validity and driving fuel directly into the daily timeframe. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Time-Axis Dissection from the April 2025 Origin on the Daily Chart Descending to the daily timeframe, it is explicitly clear that this powerful and massive bullish rally was triggered and awakened precisely in April 2025. Time-axis calculations demonstrate that the advance originating from this milestone has, up to this moment, consumed only 10 percent (0.1) of the total duration of the preceding weekly corrective phase. This fractional time consumption categorically refutes any hypothesis of an imminent end to the current ascent. Based on price-time geometric relationships, this explosive rally is not the final destination, but merely "Phase One" of a macro-trend scaled across the coming decades. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Structural Foundation & Unavoidable Price Target (Origin Circles) Based on the geometric formulation of the chart, the market in its initial leg must absolutely and as an absolute minimum achievement, test and register the structural support zone bounded between 76,750 and 79,312 points (highlighted by the origin circles). This zone constitutes the solid foundation and primary launchpad for the entire upcoming super-cycle rally. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Structural Bifurcation & Determining the Peak of "Phase Three" The temporal length required to develop and mature this initial leg from the April 2025 origin directly controls the ultimate launch ceiling of the trend in "Phase Three", presenting us with two engineered scenarios: Scenario One; Early Termination & Explosive Launch (Optimistic) If the current initial bullish leg concludes ahead of standard temporal benchmarks and the market swiftly prepares for the subsequent phase, it will signal an ultra-compressed accumulation of energy. In this event, the explosive power unleashed in Phase Three will trigger an unprecedented bullish surge, unlocking the potential to catapult prices toward a cosmic ceiling of 500,000 points. Scenario Two; Extended Initial Structure & Controlled Advance If the initial leg extends further in time, expanding its growth matrix up to a maximum price cluster of 120,000 points (around February 2027), more ascending energy will be spent within this first wave. Consequently, following the completion of the next resting phase, the acceleration rate in Phase Three will be more controlled, and calculations dictate that the structural peak of this movement in Phase Three will be capped at the geometric boundary of 185,000 points. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⏳ The Mechanism of Phase Two (Structural Respite) In both scenarios, upon securing the specified peak coordinates of the first leg, the market will naturally enter a temporary, oscillating retracement (Phase Two) for structural realignment and to consolidate forces for the primary launch. This movement is neither a crash nor a structural decay, but a natural tactical speedbump on the chart prior to the main liftoff. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ️ The Vitality Status of the Macro-Trend As long as the price remains above 30,000 points, this scenario stands firmly with absolute dominance and remains completely indestructible. In fact, given the running nature of the current momentum, the market will lack the capacity to even generate a deep correction, let alone invalidate this macro-trend. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✍ Mohsen Nirumand
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