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S&P 500 (SPY) | Today's Intraday Outlook (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
S&P 500 (SPY) Breakout or Reversal at Key Resistance? The S&P 500 is trading near a critical intraday resistance after recovering from recent lows. Momentum remains positive, but buyers must break above resistance to confirm the next bullish leg. Bullish Scenario Breakout Above: Key intraday resistance Targets Target 1: 751 Target 2: 752 Target 3: 753 Confirmation: Strong hourly close with rising volume. Bearish Scenario Failure to break resistance followed by a close below immediate support could trigger profit booking. Targets Target 1: 747 Target 2: 746 Target 3: 745 Disclaimer This analysis is shared strictly for educational and informational purposes. It is not financial or investment advice. Always perform your own research, use proper risk management, and trade according to your own strategy. Subscribe for daily market insights, swing trade setups, and institutional-style technical analysis. ❤️ Market Wisdom to Remember: ❤️ ⭐ Trade what you see, not what you assume ⭐ Follow the trend — it's your only true friend ⭐ The chart tells the real story — trust it ⭐ Emotions & assumptions have no place in trading ⭐ Capital protection comes first — always Your support matters! Like, comment, and follow to stay updated and motivated. Cheers & Trade Smart!
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Daily Actionable SPY/SPX Plans (07 JUL) (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
Daily Actionable SPY/SPX Plans Market Technical Outlook Our approach today is simple: sell supply, buy demand. The market remains trapped inside a range. SPY continues to show relative strength versus QQQ, as largecap stocks are outperforming while many technology names remain under pressure. Because of this relative strength: Long setups: Prefer SPY Short setups: Prefer QQQ The relative strength divergence is very clear, making the CC Model an ideal entry framework. Risk Index This algorithm reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. Long term: Risk On (Bullish) Short term: Slightly Bearish to Neutral Strategies / Scenarios Long Scenarios: Demand Zones: 747 → 743 → 740.5 Long Trigger: After testing a demand zone, wait for a 1 hour bullish candle close back above the level, then look to buy calls. Invalidation: A 1 hour candle close beyond the nearest swing high or swing low that formed the trigger. Short Scenarios Supply Zone: 751.5 Short Trigger: After testing the supply zone, wait for a 1 hour bearish candle close back below the level, then look to buy puts. Invalidation: A 1 hour candle close beyond the nearest swing high or swing low that formed the trigger. Profit Taking: Since the market is trading inside a range, take profits regularly for every $1 move. Range bound markets can reverse quickly, so avoid overstaying positions. Breakout Strategy (Long) If SPY breaks 752.5 with a strong, high volume 1 hour bullish candle close, long positions become valid. Targets: 755 → 758 → 760 Invalidation: 1 hour candle close below 750. Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
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SPY Finally Broke 751. Now It's Testing Whether It Holds. (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
SPY Finally Broke 751. Now It's Testing Whether It Holds. SPY broke through the 751 band that had rejected it for a week, tagging 752.40 and closing at the highs, then pulled back to 749.67. The bullish anchor that had been flagging itself for three straight sessions healed instead of breaking - it dropped its warning and price broke up, not down. That is the opposite of how the week looked like it would resolve. But the near-term read has already flipped short on the pullback, and the daily still is not fully convinced of the move, so the breakout is not clean yet. Resistance: 752.40 - yesterday's high Key resistance: 754.31-756.92 - the cluster above Current price: 749.67 Support: 745.90-744.28 - the old band top, now support to hold Key support: 740.44 - the shelf below Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle Two paths from here: The breakout confirms. The 224-bar bull print healed its anti-signal and price cleared 751 on the close, so a hold above the old 746-751 band turns it into support and opens the 754-756 cluster, then the cycle high. The anchor that would not break for a week just proved itself, and a successful retest of the breakout level would seal it. The breakout fails back into the range. Price is already back under 751 and the near-term read flipped short, so a loss of 745.90 drops it back into the range it just escaped and turns the breakout into a trap. The daily still is not confirming - a break above resistance that the conviction engine will not validate is the kind that gets sold. For a week the question was whether the cracked bull anchor would finally give. It did the opposite - healed and broke out. Now the test is whether the breakout holds a retest or fails back into the range, and the near-term read flipping short on the first pullback is the early warning that it might not be clean. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
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SPY in July (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
Despite what others will tell you no one “knows” what the market will do. We need to look at all the possibilities so we understand how to trade when the market plays out similar to one of these scenarios 1. Green Path: Bullish July (Breakout & Continuation Higher) • Key Confirmation to Watch: Sustained break and close above the blue descending resistance trendline (currently around 750-760 zone) with strong volume and bullish candles. Look for reclaim of recent highs and acceleration above the yellow horizontal (~751-755 area). • What to Expect: Strong upward momentum with the green zigzag line targeting 770-780+ initially, then pushing toward 800-830 if buyers dominate. Higher highs and higher lows on daily/weekly charts. • Bullish Catalysts/Invalidation: Rising volume profile support, positive option signals (HD signals turning bullish), and macro tailwinds (e.g., Fed easing hints, strong earnings). Invalidate if price rejects the trendline and falls back below ~740-745 with conviction. 2. Yellow Path: Neutral July (Sideways Consolidation) • Key Confirmation to Watch: Price oscillates around the yellow horizontal line (~751) and between the blue descending and red ascending trendlines without decisive breaks. Choppy candles, contracting ranges, and low volume typical of range-bound action. • What to Expect: Sideways grind between roughly 730-760, with repeated tests of the dotted horizontal support/resistance. The yellow path shows zigzagging within this band, reflecting indecision ahead of major events (earnings, Fed). • Neutral Catalysts/Invalidation: Balanced order flow, option signals staying mixed, and no strong directional bias in volume. Invalidate on a clear breakout above the blue line (bullish) or breakdown below the red support (bearish). 3. Red Path: Bearish July (Breakdown & Decline) • Key Confirmation to Watch: Failure at the blue descending trendline or yellow horizontal, followed by a decisive close below the red ascending support trendline (currently in the 730-740 area). Acceleration on increasing red volume/candles. • What to Expect: Sharp downside move as shown in the red arrow, targeting 710-720 initially and potentially lower (680-700 zone) if selling intensifies. Lower highs and lower lows confirming bearish structure. • Bearish Catalysts/Invalidation: Weak option signals, negative volume profile shifts, or macro shocks (e.g., poor data, geopolitical risks). Invalidate on a strong rebound above the blue trendline with bullish reversal candles. Overall Chart Context: SPY is at a pivotal junction near 751 with conflicting trendlines (blue resistance vs. red support). The paths illustrate the three likely July outcomes based on how price interacts with these levels. Monitor volume, HD Option Signals, and VRVP for early clues. Risk management: Define entries/exits at the key trendline breaks.
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I Tracked 1,262 Trades. Five Losses Proved Nothing. (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
“The strategy stopped working.” That was the conclusion I reached after five losses. I had spent years moving between Harmonics, price action and Wyckoff. Every time the losses arrived, I started looking for another answer. Then I recorded 1,262 trades. My win rate was 21%. My average winner was 3.93R. That sample finally showed me what five trades actually told me. Almost nothing. Five Trades Feel Like Proof Here is how a losing run feels from inside the account. Loss one. Fine. Loss two. Annoying. Loss three. You check the entry rules again. Loss four. You start wondering whether the market has changed. Loss five. You open YouTube. I know that cycle because I lived it. I would find another strategy, test it for a while and feel confident again. Then the first ugly run arrived and I repeated the process. The losses were real. My conclusion was the problem. Five trades were far too little information to judge the system. Losses Come in Clusters Flip a fair coin enough times and you will see ugly streaks. Several heads or tails can appear in a row without changing the odds of the coin. A trading system behaves the same way. Wins and losses do not arrive in a neat pattern. With a 21% win rate, losses are more common than wins. That does not automatically make the system unprofitable. Across my 1,262 recorded trades, the average winner was large enough to offset a mostly losing column. But you cannot see that relationship across five trades. You need enough trades for the average winner, average loser, win rate and losing runs to become visible. Without that sample, every loss feels like a new problem. One week, you blame the entry. The next week, you change the exit. Then you add another indicator. You are not improving the system. You are preventing it from producing enough clean data to evaluate. A Short Sample Can Mislead You Both Ways A small sample does not only make good systems look bad. It can also make bad systems look good. You can take five random trades and win four. That does not prove you have an edge. You can follow a tested system for five trades and lose all five. That does not prove the edge disappeared. The same problem sits underneath both conclusions. You are asking a small sample to answer a question it cannot answer yet. This is why I stopped measuring my trading in individual outcomes. The useful questions are simpler: • Did the trade match the tested setup? • Was the risk correct? • Did I follow the exit rule? • Am I still collecting the same type of trade? If the execution changed, investigate the execution. If the rules stayed consistent, one losing run is not enough reason to rebuild the system. Your Journal Holds the Answer You cannot judge a sample that only exists in screenshots and memory. Memory keeps the painful losses and exciting winners. It forgets the boring trades between them. A journal forces you to see the full sequence. Open your last 20 trades from one setup. Keep them in the order they happened. Write down: • Win, loss or breakeven • Result in R • Whether the setup followed your rules • Whether the execution followed your rules Twenty trades still cannot prove that a system works. That is not the purpose of this exercise. The purpose is to show you how little one bad week can prove. You may find that the strategy was never tested properly. You may find that the rules changed between trades. Or you may find a normal losing run inside a system you abandoned too early. All three findings are more useful than “the market changed”. If your trades are scattered across screenshots, get a trading journal. Record the next 20 trades from one setup in order. You will have something stronger than confidence when the next losing run arrives. You will have data.
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$SPY & $SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Tuesday, July 7, 2026 (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Tuesday, July 7, 2026 Daily Market Brief: Linktree In Bio Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) None scheduled ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. #EconomicCalendar #USMarkets
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posting a chart on MINDS (Tue, 07 Jul 2026)
this is a rabbit test, for the life of me I have no clue how to do it anymore
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SPY/SPX Expected Move High Tagged - Landed Right Above Zone (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
Key Level: 750.98 (EM high — tagged and initially rejected intraday -- closed just above PDH at 751.28, just overhead. Closed just beyond the band — SPY finished at 751.28, overhead the EM high at 750.98 and Friday's high at 751.31 after the morning tag and intraday rejection. The level shaped the session, but it's a range, not a wall. Acceptance above both levels is the open question into tomorrow. — Janice
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3 Chart Habits That Separate Consistent Traders from Lucky Ones (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
We built Colony Trading around a simple belief: trading performance is a skill, and skill shows up in habits, not hot streaks. Here are three charting habits that consistently separate disciplined traders from lucky ones — in any market, real or simulated. 1. Mark your levels before the session, not during it. Disciplined traders draw their support and resistance zones before making a single trade. When price reaches a level, the decision was already made — they're executing a plan, not reacting to a candle. 2. Use fewer indicators, more deliberately. Strong traders typically run 1–3 indicators they deeply understand (usually volume plus one momentum tool), not ten overlapping ones. An indicator you can't explain is noise with extra steps. 3. Size positions around invalidation, not conviction. The question isn't "how sure am I?" — it's "where am I wrong, and how much does it cost to find out?" Traders who define the exit before the entry survive the losing streaks that eliminate everyone else. These are the habits we built our own skill-based simulated trading platform around — no real capital at risk while you build the discipline. Chart your levels, know your tools, define your risk. — Logan Mullins, founder of Colony Trading
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SPY tags the expected move high, then stalls —750.98 is the line (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
Coming out of the long weekend, options had priced a wide day — an expected move band of 738.58 – 750.98. The gap-up ran straight into the EM high, rejected, and price is now sitting just underneath it. Below 750.98, the band edge is doing its job — that was the boundary of what the market paid for going into today, and the first tag drew sellers. A reclaim and hold above puts the tape in "moving more than priced" territory, with PDH 751.31 right overhead as the next test. Below, Thursday's close at 744.78 is the middle of the range, with the EM low at 738.58 as the far edge. FOMC Wednesday 2:00 PM ET — expect positioning to tighten into it and a wider band that day. The expected move is a probability range, not a wall — price closes beyond it about one day in three. Levels are context. Trade your own plan. Plotted with my SPY/SPX Expected Move script. https://www.tradingview.com/script/jTXIAcwE-SPY-SPX-Expected-Move-Session-Levels/ -Janice
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SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 27 of 2026 (06-10 JUL) (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK Last Week's Recap We only took one trade on SPY last week. It came on Tuesday after price successfully broke out of the Chop Zone we had identified in the Weekly Market Outlook. 1 trade. 1 win. (For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.) "UA CAPITAL EXECUTION/MANAGEMENT RECAP " Week 26 of 2026 marked another green week for UA CAPITAL, extending our streak to 13 consecutive profitable weeks. We have now gone the entire year without a single red week. Markets spent the first half of the week grinding slowly higher. In our published outlooks, we explained that we had no intention of trading inside the Chop Zone, which also aligned with a major Cluster Gamma Wall carrying extremely high total delta exposure. Our expectation was simple: price needed to leave this range before offering a high probability opportunity. Because of that, we stayed patient and did not take any trades on Monday. Tuesday finally delivered the breakout we had been waiting for. The UA CAPITAL Trading Desk was immediately notified through our chat, and we entered intraday scalp positions across SPY, QQQ, and Nasdaq futures. We closed those positions later in the session with a solid profit ahead of Wednesday's employment data, choosing not to carry unnecessary event risk overnight. The execution itself highlighted another advantage of our CC Model. Rather than trading each index independently, we first waited for confirmation on SPY before using the correlation between SPY and QQQ to execute both positions simultaneously. This confirmation based approach continues to filter out many false signals while significantly improving execution quality. It has become one of the core trading frameworks inside the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk because we focus on reacting to confirmed price action instead of predicting market direction. Our SPY entry was executed around 743.5 and closed near 747.5, producing another clean intraday winner. On Wednesday we remained completely inactive. Thursday's Non Farm Payroll report represented a major macro catalyst, and we believed it was better to wait until that uncertainty had passed before opening new index positions. The only adjustment we made was hedging our existing swing and spot long positions by purchasing VIX call options together with the Trading Desk. When Thursday's employment report came in stronger than expected, markets avoided the sharp selloff we had hedged against. We closed the VIX positions for a small loss, which simply became the cost of insurance. From a money management perspective, it was exactly the type of disciplined hedge we aim to execute. Thursday's stronger than expected data pushed markets modestly higher during premarket trading. Since none of our predefined SPY or QQQ scenarios were triggered, we once again avoided forcing trades. Instead, we shifted our focus toward individual equities. Equities Play Last week I mentioned that capital could begin rotating out of semiconductors and memory names into large cap technology. During the week, that rotation became increasingly visible. In Thursday's premarket update, I told the Trading Desk that I intended to build long exposure in AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL. At the open we executed exactly as planned. AAPL and MSFT generated strong gains, while GOOGL was stopped out near breakeven. AAPL advanced approximately $13, producing a gain of around 4.4%. MSFT gained roughly $6, representing approximately a 1.6% move. The profits generated from these large cap equity trades were highly satisfying. Meanwhile, memory names such as MU declined sharply, exactly as anticipated. However, because most of the weakness occurred during premarket trading, they never offered attractive retest opportunities for short entries. Overall, it was another successful week. Although the Risk Index had been expecting a healthy retracement, the stronger than expected NFP report prevented that correction from developing. Instead, we adapted quickly, focused on the strongest sectors, generated solid profits through our equity positions, and added another winning SPY trade to finish the week. This Week's Scenarios / Prediction Risk Index This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions. The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bearish environment. That means additional downside remains possible over the near term. However, the longer term structure continues to remain firmly risk on, suggesting that quality demand zones should still produce attractive swing long opportunities. Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will look for short opportunities from the primary swing resistance area while remaining prepared to buy confirmed reactions from our predefined demand zones. The longer term bias remains bullish. Scenarios / Strategies Short Scenario Swing Area (754.5) This area represents the primary Call Wall and our highest probability supply zone. If price retests this level and shows clear rejection, it can provide a quality short opportunity. Trigger: Retest followed by a bearish one hour candle closing back below the level. Targets: 751 → 747 → 743 → 740 Invalidation: Hourly close above 757. Long Scenario 1 KEY Level 1 (747) This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish one hour candle close back above the zone. Targets:750 → 754.5 → 757 → 760 Invalidation: Hourly close below 743. Long Scenario 2 KEY Level 2 (735) This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure. Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone. Targets: 740 → 743 → 747 → 750 → 754.5 Invalidation: Daily close below 730. Position Management Rules -Entry model: Aggressive: one hour candle close above or below the designated level.Conservative: daily candle close above or below the designated level. -Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly. -After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade. -A reaction from the level must be be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss. Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
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SPY's Bull Anchor Is Cracked For A Third Session Now. (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
SPY's Bull Anchor Is Cracked For A Third Session Now. SPY opens the week at 747.86, back near the top of the range it has been stuck in, with the same standoff running into a fifth session. The bullish anchor that has held the market up for months is carrying a warning flag for a third straight session - the longest it has doubted itself all cycle - but it still hasn't actually broken. The near-term read has flipped back to short even as price sits near the highs. Nothing has resolved; the range has just gotten tighter. Resistance: 746.91-751.24 - the band that keeps rejecting Key resistance: 756.68 - the cycle high Current price: 747.86 Support: 740.44 - the shelf that has to hold Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle Two paths from here: The crack finally breaks. The 223-bar bull print has flagged itself for three sessions running, the daily short setup holds at 3/5, and the near-term read just flipped short again with price up near resistance - a bearish divergence. A rejection at 751 and a loss of 740.44 opens 736.50 then 732.45, and the standoff that has held five sessions resolves down. The anchor holds and breaks out. If the bull print sheds its flag and price clears 751 on volume, the 756 cycle high opens. But this has been the losing side of the range for a week - every push into the band has been sold, and volume at the 22nd percentile is not what carries a breakout. The burden is on the buyers to finally take 751. Five sessions, the same range, and now the bull anchor doubting itself for a third straight day while the near-term read flips short into resistance. Price near the highs with conviction turning down is the kind of divergence that usually resolves toward the weaker hand. But the print has to break - it has been cracked all week without giving. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
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$SPY: FOMC minutes Wed into the September top setup (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
FOMC minutes from Warsh's first meeting land Wednesday July 8 at 14:00 ET, into a tape that just slid the hike from October to December after June NFP printed +57k on 7/2 (~half of consensus, private +49k, unemployment 4.2%). The near-term catalyst sits in front of a September convergence: SPY's monthly Time@Mode has room only into that month, and the oil-to-earnings lag from the late-February Hormuz supply shock lands the corporate-earnings drag on the same date. Two independent variables, one date. Near-term SPY is constructive above the first Warsh FOMC key level, but the weekly uptrend trigger is up at 767.1 this week (a range-expansion projection off last week's close), a good move higher and no longer in reach, and QQQ turned bearish on the daily into the 7/2 close, so the dispersion inside the majors is live. Read this bounce as a relief to trade with a leash, not a new bull leg. Behind the tape, oil flipped from shortage to glut: crude round-tripped to pre-war (~$72-73 Brent) and the disruption tail moved to Russian diesel (the Northwest Europe crack holds above $40, a potential export ban the real products-led spike risk). The oil-to-earnings lag cuts both ways: the late-Feb spike's drag lands ~September (the top), the round-trip lower projects a tailwind ~Dec 2026-Jan 2027. Signals scorecard sits low-conviction on the count (BULL 5 / BEAR 4) but three factors past kill lines: P/E 26.7x over 25, CPI 4.2% over 4.0, Junk Spreads 2.75 under the 3.0 contrarian line (credit pricing zero risk premium). Own cheap optionality over the directional bet. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
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SPY: $746 Breakout or $742 Trap? Jul 6 (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
SPY is coming into the new week near highs, but the setup is mixed because the market is balancing slower jobs data, Fed minutes, and rotation under the surface. Schwab reported June jobs came in at only 57,000 versus expectations, with unemployment at 4.2%, while SPX was around 7,483 and VIX near 15.98 in the July 2 update. The Fed calendar shows the next FOMC meeting is July 28-29, and Fed minutes are typically released three weeks after the policy decision. Barron’s also noted this week is relatively quiet before earnings season gets stronger, with Fed minutes as one of the key macro events. SPY is still holding near the upper range, but the chart is not a clean chase setup yet. The 1H chart shows price consolidating under resistance after a strong move from the $716 area into the $752 zone. The 15m chart shows a sharp pullback into $740, then a recovery back toward $746. The market still has bullish momentum, but the GEX setup shows puts are heavier right now, so I would let the key levels decide. The 1H chart shows SPY holding above the prior breakout area, but price is still under the upper trendline resistance near $750-$753. The recent rejection from $751-$752 created a short-term lower high, but buyers defended the $740 area quickly. This means SPY is still range-bound between $740 and $752. A break above $748-$750 can bring $751-$753 back into play. A failure under $742 can bring $740 and $735 into play. Key Levels $755: Upper GEX call zone and possible upside magnet if $752 breaks. $752-$753: Major resistance from the 1H chart. $751.31: Recent 15m high. $750: Main GEX call resistance and psychological level. $748-$749: First upside resistance zone. $746: HVL / current battle zone. $745.50-$746: Current price area. $742: First downside support and put level. $740.03: Recent 15m low. $735: Lower GEX put zone if $740 fails. 15m Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/E4xxuOBQ/ The 15m chart shows SPY sold off from $751.31 down to $740.03, then recovered back into the $745-$746 zone. Price also broke above the short-term descending trendline, which is constructive. But the recovery is now testing the HVL area around $746. This is the decision zone. If SPY holds above $746, bulls can push toward $748 and $750. If SPY fails at $746 and loses $742, the chart can roll back toward $740. GEX Positioning https://www.tradingview.com/x/K3rZlykA/ The GEX chart shows SPY sitting almost exactly near the $746 HVL. This level can act like a magnet or pin area if volume stays light. Puts are around 62.4%, so the options positioning is not fully bullish. This means SPY can still bounce, but upside needs real buying pressure above $746-$748. The main upside GEX levels are $748, $749, $750, $752, and $755. If SPY clears $748 with volume, $750 becomes the next magnet. Above $750, $752-$755 becomes the next upside zone. Below price, $742 is the first put/support level. If $742 breaks, $740 becomes the next support. Below $740, the next downside magnet is $735. IVR is around 36.1 and IV average is around 16.8, so premium is not extremely hot, but SPY can still move if macro headlines or Fed minutes shift expectations. Bullish Scenario If SPY holds above $746 and breaks $748 with volume, the first upside target is $750. Above $750, the next target is $751.31-$752. If $752 breaks cleanly, SPY can push toward $755. A strong bullish confirmation would be a hold above $750 after the breakout. Bearish Scenario If SPY fails at $746 and loses $742, I would be careful. That would show buyers failed to defend the current HVL zone. Below $742, the first target is $740. If $740 breaks, the GEX downside opens toward $735. Trade Consideration For me, the clean long setup is above $748 with volume. I would not chase while SPY is stuck around $745-$746. The clean bearish setup is below $742. If $742 breaks and fails to recover, $740 and $735 become the next downside levels. Conclusion SPY is still holding near the highs, but the setup is not clean enough to chase. The 15m chart recovered well from $740, but GEX shows heavier puts and price is sitting right near the $746 HVL. Above $748 favors continuation toward $750, $752, and $755. Below $742 opens the door back to $740 and possibly $735. This is a level-to-level setup. Let $748 decide the breakout, and let $742 decide the breakdown.
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$SPY & $SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Monday, July 6, 2026 (Mon, 06 Jul 2026)
AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Monday, July 6, 2026 Daily Market Brief: Linktree In Bio Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) 10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI | Forecast: 54.2 | Previous: 54.5 ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. #ISM #USMarkets
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Cant publish under 15 minute candles (Sun, 05 Jul 2026)
So it turns out you can't publish a chart using the 5 minute time frame but that okay. I shared this because I wanted to go over what I was thinking on July 2nd's SPY day trades. Using my new "SPY Probability Signals" Indicator I enter a long position buying the 750 0DTE call. I exited because I had seen previous days where the first signal was false. This was a lucky exit and netted the first win of the day. The second play I entered as short position by buying the 747 0DTE put on the second candle after the signal when I saw a rejection on reclaiming the VWAP. I then sold at the bounce from below my horizontal support. This was a superb play so I decided to call it a day after that. There was a final signal at the EOD that would have been good for a 1DTE call trade.
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