Анализ Индексов
Северсталь и дивиденды: когда ждать возвращения «золотой жилы»? (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)>> Read More
Маск берёт 82% голосов, рынок говорит «окей» — я объясню почему это опасно (Wed, 10 Jun 2026)
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Усиливающийся нефтяной шок может обрушить индекс S&P 500 до 5400 пунктов (Mon, 23 Mar 2026)
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NASDAQ. Торговый план и прогнозы. Углы Ганна (Mon, 23 Mar 2026)
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Нефть по $100 и слабый рубль: топ-акции бенефициары в 2026 году (Mon, 16 Mar 2026)
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Почему Уолл-стрит игнорирует угрозу на Ближнем Востоке и к чему готовиться (Wed, 04 Mar 2026)
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Глаза S&P 500 боятся, а руки делают (Fri, 27 Feb 2026)
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От твитов к термоядерной энергии (Thu, 18 Dec 2025)
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Oracle ставит под сомнение устойчивость всего ИИ-сектора (Wed, 17 Dec 2025)
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IMOEX: Хрупкая комбинация решается в Берлине. Что сделает Набиуллина в пятницу? (Mon, 15 Dec 2025)
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Технический Анализ
Прогноз Криптовалют и Форекс на 13 - 17 июля 2026 (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)>> Read More
Доллар сохраняет силу, а S&P 500 удерживает оптимизм. (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Риски для российского рынка склоняются в сторону нисходящих (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Главное для S&P 500 на пятницу: деэскалация с Ираном и отчет Delta Air Lines (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Российский рынок перед данными по инфляции сохраняет слабость (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Накал в Ормузе чуть спал, рубль и IMOEX под давлением, бюджет в июне не ухудшился (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Затишье после бури: доллар ждёт, нефть остыла (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Трамп объявил конец перемирия. Теперь рынок ставок держится на Ормузском проливе (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
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Главное для S&P 500 на четверг: сдержанный ответ Ирана и отчет PepsiCo (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
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Цены на золото пытаются удержаться выше 4100 долл/унц (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
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Фундаментальный Анализ
Прогноз Криптовалют и Форекс на 13 - 17 июля 2026 (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)>> Read More
Доллар сохраняет силу, а S&P 500 удерживает оптимизм. (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Риски для российского рынка склоняются в сторону нисходящих (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Главное для S&P 500 на пятницу: деэскалация с Ираном и отчет Delta Air Lines (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Ормузский пролив открылся и снова закрылся. Чего ждать дальше? (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Российский рынок перед данными по инфляции сохраняет слабость (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Накал в Ормузе чуть спал, рубль и IMOEX под давлением, бюджет в июне не ухудшился (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Затишье после бури: доллар ждёт, нефть остыла (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
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Дивидендные доходности продолжают расти (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
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Трамп объявил конец перемирия. Теперь рынок ставок держится на Ормузском проливе (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
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TradingView Ideas
Echoes of 1929: The Liquidation Cliff Approaching (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)The Macro Thesis: A Vertical Rally Built on Thin Ice The market has pulled off a breathtaking V-shaped recovery from the April lows near $628.16, pushing past all conventional resistance. However, the technical architecture of this rally is flashing extreme distribution signals that look eerily similar to classic historical market tops—most notably, the pre-crash structure of 1929. We have entered the final exhausting phase of the wedge, and the math says the upside is tapped out. Technical Breakdown: Why the Music Stops Here The 1.618 Fibonacci Trap: The vertical surge off the April bottom perfectly overextended into the 1.618 Fib extension level at $740.81. The current price action around $754.32 represents a classic "liquidity sweep" above this extension, trapping late-stage bulls. The Tightening Wedge & Fan Lines: Price is currently constricting at the apex of multiple major intersecting trendlines. Volume is steadily declining as price edges higher, showing a severe lack of institutional buying pressure behind these new highs. The Projected Path (August - October): Expect an immediate roll-over testing initial support near $700. A corrective bounce back up to retest broken structural support around $712 will likely act as the trap door, setting up a massive, high-velocity liquidation wave straight down to the $500 whole-number psychological level by October. The 7-8 Month Fundamental Timeline: Upcoming Headlines That Will Trigger the Drop A technical setup this severe requires a fundamental catalyst. Over the next 7 to 8 months, expect the macro narrative to shift violently. Here are the headlines that will likely drive this chart's projected path: Late Summer (The Initial Roll-over): "Liquidity Squeeze: Commercial Paper and Corporate Debt Maturities Hit a Wall as Yields Spike." Early Autumn (The Breakdown & Retest): "Margin Call Cascades: Systemic Funds Forced to De-risk as Tech Valuations Splinter." Late Autumn (The Capitulation Wave): "The Credit Freeze: Global Credit Markets Lock Up in Sharpest Contraction Since the Financial Crisis." Early 2027 (The Bottom & Stabilization): "The Great Re-pricing: S&P 500 Erases 2 Years of Gains as Central Banks Scramble for an Emergency Pivot." Key Levels to Execute Invalidation / Stop Zone: A sustained daily close above $765 invalidates this macro bearish bias. Target 1: $700 (Initial structural support and psychological level) Target 2: $628 (The April swing low retest) Macro Target 3: $500 (Major terminal capitulation target) What are your thoughts? Are we looking at a classic 1929-style rug pull, or does this melt-up have more legs? Let me know in the comments below! Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage your risk.
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Rolling (IRA): SPY November 20th -620P up to the -650P (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
... for a 1.89 credit. Comments: I can't find the original post in my feed, but received a 6.54 credit for the -620P. I'm rolling it up here to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. 8.43 credits received to date, 1.30% ROC as a function of strike price at max.
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Opening (IRA): SPY January 15th -600P (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
... for a 6.20 credit. Comments: Continuing to ladder out at intervals, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Will generally look to roll at intervals to lock in realized gains and increase ROC as a function of buying power effect, since a 1% return for 180 days of "work" isn't exactly fabulous. I'll simultaneously look at adding in shorter duration, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
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SPY Day Trade 7/10 (15-Minute Chart) (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
Yesterday morning I shared this chart and mentioned I was leaning bullish for Monday's open, despite the chart looking a bit bearish. So far, that thesis has held up pretty well. With today's price action, I've updated the chart by adding a new light orange trendline along with a revised blue path to better reflect the current structure. The way I see it, SPY is now respecting this new ascending trendline, and as long as buyers continue defending it, I think there's still room for another push toward the upper resistance levels. That doesn't mean it'll be a straight shot higher—I'd actually expect plenty of chop along the way—but the structure continues to favor higher highs unless that trendline is lost. The bearish scenario is still on the table, but after today's strength it's no longer my primary focus. If we lose the new trendline with conviction, then I'll reassess. Until then, I'm more interested in letting price prove it wants to continue higher rather than trying to pick a top. Today's Game Plan Today isn't a day where I want to overtrade. My plan is simple: Day trade only. Silence the noise at the market open. Wait for 5-minute candle confirmation before taking any position. I'm only expecting one or two quality trades at most. Some days the best trade is the one you don't take. I'd rather wait for the market to come to me than force entries just because the opening bell rang. As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator will be my trigger—not my prediction. The technical analysis provides the roadmap, but the indicator helps identify when the probabilities begin shifting in favor of Calls or Puts. Combined with 5-minute confirmation, that's the approach I'll be sticking with today. Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade.
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S&P 500 (SPY) | Market Outlook | Friday, July 10, 2026 (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
The S&P 500 enters Friday's session with investors closely monitoring U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, Treasury yields, and global geopolitical developments. While market sentiment remains constructive, elevated valuations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could keep intraday volatility elevated. Key Themes U.S. macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations. Federal Reserve commentary and bond yield movements. Global geopolitical tensions and trade developments. Institutional positioning ahead of the weekend. Bullish: A sustained move above resistance may attract momentum buying and extend the uptrend. Bearish: Failure to hold key support could trigger profit-taking and defensive positioning before the weekend. Daily TimeFrame Chart Indicates Symmetrical Traingle Pattern formation and supply zones above. Check Below Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/RZbFcgZ4/ Trade with confirmation, not anticipation. Let price action lead the way. Educational analysis only. Not financial or investment advice.
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SPY Is Back At The Highs And The Read Finally Agrees. (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
SPY Is Back At The Highs And The Read Finally Agrees. SPY has held its recovery all the way back to 751, right under the 752 highs, and this morning the read finally caught up to the price. After days of the conviction engine reading bearish while price rose, the surface flipped bullish and the daily thesis turned long for the first time in the standoff. The bull anchor that would not break all week is now being confirmed rather than doubted. The one caution left is that this is happening at the highs, with an unsustainable-upside flag still active - the read agrees, but the location is the worst part of the range to chase. Resistance: 752.45 - the highs, the level to break Key resistance: 760.40 - the cycle high Current price: 751.80 Support: 748 - first support below Key support: 740.44 - the shelf that held the shakeout Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle Two paths from here: The breakout to new highs. With the daily thesis long, the surface conviction confirming, and the bull anchor standing, a clean break of 752.45 opens the path to the 760 cycle high. This is the first time all week the read and the price have agreed on direction - the standoff resolving up. The euphoria caps it. The one thing arguing against a chase is the unsustainable-upside flag still active at the highs, with some short conditions still loaded. If 752.45 rejects and price rolls back under 748, the failed-breakout risk returns and 740.44 gets a third test. Buying the highs into a euphoria flag is the low-reward side of this. A week of coiling resolved with price back at the highs and, for the first time, the read agreeing with it - both timeframes long, conviction confirming. That is the bullish resolution. The catch is the location: at the highs, into an unsustainable flag, the move is confirmed but the entry is not. 752.45 is the level that turns confirmation into a breakout. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
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SPY - ascending triangle pattern breakout. possible new highs (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
SPY - ETF making an ascending triangle pattern on the daily. high watch for a breakout move $752.50 for a move $758.45 all time highs. ETF is strong on charts. high watch. seeing decent call flow setting up going into breakout.
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$SPY & $SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Friday, July 10, 2026 (Fri, 10 Jul 2026)
AMEX:SPY & SPCFD:SPX — Levels and Scenarios for Friday, July 10, 2026 Daily Market Brief: Linktree In Bio Key U.S. Economic Data (ET) None scheduled ⚠️ For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. #EconomicCalendar #USMarkets
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SPY seems to have an assertive breakout of the resistance. (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
The SPY index appears to have one solid candle closed outside the resistance trend line.
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SPY Breakout ? (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
seems like after these last few weeks of a lot of Bear price action we still were not able to break down fully. During this consolidation we created a symmetrical triangle and it looks to me like we are currently attempting a breakout of this. The resistance of the symmetrical triangle is around 751.17. I still would like to see us pop above 753 and start flipping 752 previous resistance into new support before I can get a little more confident on this breakout, but we have had a very strong push up into this resistance a beautiful pullback off of that move as the back test and another push into the previous area. If this thing does break to the upside, we actually have a target of $785 Will SPY make new all-time highs again? Or do we have to pull back in for another test of the lower support of this pattern which is around $735 I do see that we had a little bit of a bear trap/capitulation when we went down to 716 We did have a great bounce off of that area. Looks like a lot of buyer stepped in? Was it enough to push us in the new all-time highs or was it a warning shot of where we are potentially heading if we failed this breakout? I believe that if we can close this week above 752 that could be a great start for the next coming weeks to continue pushing into new ATh. What are your thoughts?
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Trump Golden Age pump loading (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
$17 trillion in investments for america. Trump accounts for kids and adults. The AI, Quantum, Nuclear Fusion and Blockchain revolution is just beginning
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$SPY Breakout out of pennant confirmed live. (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
This is a follow up to an earlier video from today showing the bullish strength of the price action and a live continuation of breakout of pennant.
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Potential Breakout $SPY (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
Looking at TA, overall price action, and potential breakout at a major resistance area. AMEX:SPY
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$SPY correction incoming of 10%+? (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
Could we see a roughly 10-17% correction here? I think so. Price has been consolidating in a downtrend channel (or bull flag, depending on your interpretation of the pattern). However, with the new higher low today rejecting the top of the structure, my bias leans bearish. If we can see a break below the channel, then I think it's likely that we'll find support in the box around $680 or so. If we break below that, I think the max drawdown will be to $621. I've marked off key levels above and below. Invalidation of the idea would be a break above the highs. Let's see.
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Objective short on the SPX (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
On spy at 749-750 is strong resistance. It looks like a B wave is completing. I'm wrong if they get over the recent highs. Other markets are also at resistance, but we could go a bit higher first. If we drop from here it may be a nice move down to 7250 area.
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SPY Outlook heading into Monday (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
SPY is once again sitting at a key inflection point, trading between well-defined support and resistance after several sessions of back-and-forth price action. The three paths on the chart aren't predictions—they're simply the scenarios I think are most likely to play out over the next couple of trading days. Bullish Scenario If buyers defend the 743.45-740.50 support zone and reclaim 748.32, momentum could build quickly toward 751.31 and potentially challenge the upper trendline. The structure still allows for a strong relief rally, especially if the market shrugs off the recent weakness and rotates back into large-cap tech. Bearish Scenario The bearish case becomes stronger if SPY loses the lower support zone with conviction. One thing worth watching is META. A significant selloff in META, combined with broader weakness across the major indices, could easily spill over into SPY and accelerate downside momentum. Given META's weight in the market, a sharp move there often influences overall sentiment. Range-Bound Scenario There's also a good chance SPY continues bouncing between these key levels before making a decisive move. Choppy markets have a habit of frustrating both bulls and bears, and until one side gains conviction, we could simply see more consolidation. My Outlook Ironically, because so many traders seem to be expecting the bearish outcome, I'm actually leaning slightly bullish for Monday's open. The market has a tendency to move where it causes the most frustration, and with sentiment feeling cautious after the recent weakness, I wouldn't be surprised to see an early squeeze higher before the next meaningful move develops. That doesn't mean the bullish path is guaranteed—far from it. If META or the broader market breaks down with conviction, this thesis can change quickly. For now, though, I think it's worth keeping an open mind instead of assuming Friday's weakness automatically carries into Monday. As always, the Heavy Diligence Options Signals Indicator is what I'll be relying on for actual entries. The indicator is built for short-term trading on the 5- and 15-minute timeframes, while these scenarios simply provide context for where price is likely to react. Having the roadmap ahead of time makes it much easier to execute the plan when a quality Call or Put signal appears. Disclaimer: This is only a trade idea based on the current technical structure and is not financial advice. Always do your own research, wait for confirmation, and manage your risk before entering any trade.
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Another ABC (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
The Market is rallying towards 749-750 in pre market, so it likely gets there by or after open. It looks like another ABC, so at 750 it's a good short entry (with a tight stop). This aligns with the QQQ's getting to their 18ma resistance at 721 and Gap fill area. The Vix will likely test it's breakout at 16.10. If we drop from here it should be swift and maybe done by early next week.
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Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 09 JUL (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook Risk Index Current Market State: Short Term Slightly Bullish (downside risks remain) | Long Term Bullish The Risk Index currently suggests that the market has shifted back into a short to medium term risk on environment. However, geopolitical risks continue to present downside uncertainty, meaning volatility can return quickly if negative headlines emerge. Despite that, the longer term outlook remains firmly bullish. This proprietary oscillator, developed internally at UA CAPITAL, combines multiple macro parameters into a single sentiment framework. The same complex risk analysis process I manually used for years is now automated through this system, allowing us to read market sentiment objectively and without emotion in real time. As long as the longer term structure remains bullish, we will continue looking for buying opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At the same time, tactical shorts can still be considered from major supply zones whenever price confirms rejection. Scenarios / Prediction Long Scenario As long as price remains above 745, the path of least resistance continues to favor a move toward 750. Trigger: Retest of 745 followed by a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level. Targets: 747.5 → 750 → 752 Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 744. Breakout Long Scenario If price produces a confirmed 1-hour bullish close above 752, a breakout continuation trade can be considered following a successful retest. Trigger: Retest of 752 followed by a bullish 1-hour candle close above the level. Targets: 755 → 758.5 Invalidation: 1 hour bearish candle close below 750. Short Scenario The 750–752 area represents the primary supply zone. If price reaches this region and produces a strong bearish rejection, short exposure can be considered. Trigger: Retest of the 750–752 supply zone followed by a strong 1-hour bearish candle close back below the level. Targets: 747 → 745 → 740 Invalidation: 1 hour bullish candle close above 752. Notice: Starting a fresh, high frequency track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities on TradingView. Moving forward, all institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week updates will be tracked consistently right here. This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
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SPY Reclaimed The Shelf But The Short Book Is Full. (Thu, 09 Jul 2026)
SPY Reclaimed The Shelf But The Short Book Is Full. SPY held the 740.44 shelf and recovered to 746, turning the failed breakout into a shakeout so far. The months-long bull anchor even healed the crack it had been carrying. But underneath, the setup is turning top-heavy: the downside conditions are now fully loaded for the first time, an unsustainable-upside flag just tripped, and the near-term conviction is reading deeply bearish right as price sits near the highs. Price recovered; the machinery is leaning the other way. Resistance: 748-752.40 - the band and the failed high Key resistance: 752.40 - the cycle high area Current price: 746.26 Support: 740.44 - the shelf that held Key support: 736.50-732.45 - the recovery base Structural floor: 716.50 - the operative low this cycle Two paths from here: The shakeout completes. 740.44 held and the bull anchor healed its anti-signal, so a push through 748 back toward 752 would confirm the failed breakout as a shakeout and put the highs back in play. The anchor that would not break all week is standing, and price is holding the upper half of the range. The top-heavy read resolves down. The downside conditions are loaded at their max for the first time, euphoria is flagged on the recovery, and the hourly conviction is reading near its floor with price up here - a divergence. A loss of 740.44 opens 736.50 then the 732.45 base, and that is where the standing bull anchor finally gets its real test. The shakeout read is holding and the bull anchor healed - but the short book is now full, euphoria is flagged, and conviction is diverging bearish at the highs. Price near resistance with the machinery loaded short is the setup that resolves fast when it goes. 740.44 held once; whether it holds the next test is the tell. Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS Study, not financial advice.
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